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Serie A

Corinthians - Vasco da Gama

04/26/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Corinthians
0.9
Total xG
1.9
Vasco da Gama
1.0
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

12%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
CORVDG

Corinthians

Attack weakness (0.52x league average)
-1.11
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.51
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.34
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 10, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Declining form (0.7 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.07
25% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Vasco da Gama

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.44
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.38
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 17, 7 places gap)
+0.03
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Corinthians with Gabriel Paulista: 0.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Vasco da Gama: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Vasco da Gama with Hugo Moura: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Vasco da Gama: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

35%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Vasco da Gama shows stronger offensive statistics, with an average of 1.5 goals per game compared to Corinthians' 0.67 goals
  • Corinthians is in poor form (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 games) and has a faltering goal production (0.7 recently)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 35% probability for a draw and a 35% probability for an away win for Vasco da Gama
Risk Factors
  • Corinthians score an average of only 0.67 goals per home game
  • Corinthians recorded an average of only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Corinthians will be without suspended goalkeeper H. de Souza Nogueira
Overview

Corinthians (17th place, 12 points) host Vasco da Gama (10th place, 16 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 26, 2026, 8:00 PM

Corinthians are fighting against relegation, while Vasco is in the middle of the table

Form

Corinthians' home form across all competitions is DLLDD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

This corresponds to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in the last five games

Vasco da Gama shows better form with WDLDW in their last five games

That is 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Statistics

Corinthians score an average of only 0.67 goals per game and concede 0.92 goals

At home, they score 0.67 goals and concede 1.0 goals per match

Vasco da Gama is stronger offensively with an average of 1.5 goals scored per game and 1.5 goals conceded

Away, Vasco scores 1.4 goals and concedes 1.8 goals per game

Corinthians' goal production is faltering (0.7 recently), season average is 0.9

Vasco da Gama scores consistently (~1.4 goals per game)

Head-to-Head

In the 4 head-to-head matches so far, Corinthians dominated with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Vasco da Gama

The goal difference is 9:5 in favor of Corinthians

Corinthians won the last encounter away with a 3:2 score on August 24, 2025

Key Players

For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro (1 goal, 3 assists, Avg. 7.13 rating) and Gabriel Paulista (1 goal, Avg. 7.07 rating) are important players

Yuri Alberto scored 1 goal in 8 appearances and has scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Vasco da Gama, Cuiabano stands out (2 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 7.31 rating)

Thiago Mendes scored 2 goals and 1 assist and is in stable form (1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games)

Andrés Gómez (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.01 rating) scored 2 goals in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

KauĂȘ is expected in goal for Corinthians

The team has kept 2 clean sheets this season

Vasco da Gama relies on LĂ©o Jardim

The team has kept 0 clean sheets this season

Influences

Corinthians scores an average of 0.67 goals at home and concedes 1.0 goals per game

Vasco da Gama scores 1.4 goals away and concedes 1.8 goals per game

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