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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo

04/26/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
Atlético Mineiro
1.1
Total xG
2.4
Flamengo
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

0:1

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
AMFLA

Atlético Mineiro

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.63
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Hulk  on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Reinier on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

Flamengo

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.19
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.07
Lucas Paquetá not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Atlético Mineiro with Tomás Pérez: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Flamengo: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    Flamengo with Léo Pereira: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Flamengo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

30%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Favorites' role: Flamengo is second in the table with 23 points and boasts higher offensive efficiency (avg 1.82 goals per game)
  • Current form: Flamengo is on a 3-game winning streak, while Atlético Mineiro has suffered 2 consecutive losses
  • Mathematical prediction: The analysis favors Flamengo with a win probability of 41%
Risk Factors
  • Draw probability: The mathematical model calculates a high draw probability of 30%
  • Both teams to score: The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model
  • Flamengo's away defense: Flamengo concedes an average of 1.6 goals per away game, which is above their season average
Overview

Atlético Mineiro (13th place, 14 points) hosts Flamengo (2nd place, 23 points) in a Serie A match on April 26, 2026, 8:30 PM. Flamengo aims to solidify its position near the top of the league, while Atlético Mineiro seeks to move away from the relegation zone

Form

Atlético Mineiro's recent form is LWWLL, with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. The team has suffered 2 consecutive losses

Flamengo, on the other hand, is in good form with DLWWW, comprising 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games. Flamengo has won their last 3 consecutive matches

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Atlético Mineiro averages 1.17 goals scored per game and concedes 1.25 goals. In home games, the average is 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

Flamengo is stronger offensively, averaging 1.82 goals per match with a solid defense conceding 0.91 goals. Away from home, Flamengo scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 1.6 goals

Atlético Mineiro kept 3 clean sheets, while Flamengo achieved 4

Both teams scored in 4 of Atlético Mineiro's games and 6 of Flamengo's games

Overall, there were more than 2.5 goals in 5 of Atlético Mineiro's matches and 7 of Flamengo's matches

Head-to-Head

In the 4 head-to-head encounters between these two teams, Atlético Mineiro has yet to secure a win. Flamengo won 2 matches, and 2 ended in a draw

Flamengo scored 6 goals in these meetings, while Atlético Mineiro scored 3 goals

The last match on November 26, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

Historically, Flamengo dominates this fixture

Key Players

For Atlético Mineiro, Victor Hugo with 3 goals and 1 assist and a season rating of 7.06, and Tomás Cuello with 2 goals and 1 assist and a season rating of 6.95, are key players

Bernard contributed 1 goal in 9 season appearances and has a season rating of 6.53

Not nominated: Hulk (1 Goal, 3 Assists), Reinier (1 Goal, 1 Assist)

For Flamengo, Pedro stands out with 5 goals and 3 assists and a season rating of 7.21. Giorgian de Arrascaeta recorded 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.26

Samuel Lino was involved in 2 goals and 3 assists with a season rating of 6.91

Not nominated: Lucas Paquetá (3 Goals, 0 Assists)

Goalkeepers

Everson, Atlético Mineiro's goalkeeper, recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Agustín Rossi, Flamengo's goalkeeper, managed to keep a clean sheet in 4 matches

Influences

Atlético Mineiro scored an average of 1.12 goals in home games and conceded 0.75 goals

Flamengo scored an average of 1.8 goals in away games and conceded 1.6 goals

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