Serie A
Botafogo - Internacional
04/25/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.3
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Botafogo
Internacional
The Lab
- 1Botafogo: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Internacional with Rodrigo Villagra: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Botafogo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 4Internacional: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Botafogo with Allan: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
31%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Offensive strength: Botafogo is currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (2.0)
- Home advantage: Botafogo's home offense is strong with an average of 1.8 goals
- Attacking presence: Botafogo recently averaged 6.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Defensive weakness: Botafogo concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game
- Offensive limitation: Internacional scores an average of only 0.83 goals per game this season
- Draw risk: The mathematical analysis shows a draw with 31% probability
Overview
Botafogo (9th place, 16 points) host Internacional (14th place, 13 points) in Serie A. The match is scheduled for April 25, 2026, 10:30 PM. Both teams are in the mid-table, striving to close the gap to the top positions.
Form
Botafogo shows inconsistent form with a W-W-D-L-W record in their last five matches across all competitions (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in this period. Internacional's form in their last five games is L-D-W-D-W, tallying 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss.
Statistics
Botafogo has averaged 2.0 goals scored per game this season and conceded 2.0 goals. At home, their average is 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded. Internacional has averaged 0.83 goals per game and conceded 1.0 goal. Away from home, Internacional averages 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of Botafogo's matches and 6 of Internacional's matches.
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Botafogo secured 3 wins, while Internacional claimed 1 win, with no draws. The goal difference stands at 6:2 in favor of Botafogo. The last encounter on October 4, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for Internacional.
Key Players
For Botafogo, Danilo (6 goals, 2 assists in 9 appearances), Matheus Martins (4 goals, 0 assists in 11 appearances), and Edenilson (3 goals, 2 assists in 7 appearances) are key players. Danilo and Edenilson show stable form, while Matheus Martins has a rising form trend. For Internacional, Alerrandro (1 goal, 0 assists in 11 appearances) with rising form, Vitinho (0 goals, 3 assists in 11 appearances), and Johan Carbonero (1 goal, 1 assist in 12 appearances) are important players. Not nominated for Internacional are Alan Patrick (3G/0A) and Rafael Borré (1G/1A).
Goalkeepers
Neto for Botafogo has kept 1 clean sheet this season. Internacional has a total of 3 clean sheets this season with Anthoni as the starting goalkeeper.
Influences
Botafogo exhibits a home goal difference of +0.4 (1.8 goals scored, 1.4 goals conceded). Internacional is defensively solid away from home, conceding an average of 0.67 goals per game while scoring 0.83 goals.