Serie A
São Paulo - Mirassol
04/26/2026, 12:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.4
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
13%0:0
11%2:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
São Paulo
Mirassol
The Lab
- 1Mirassol with Edson Carioca : 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Mirassol: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- 3São Paulo with Lucas Ramon: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4São Paulo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Mirassol: 65% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
29%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- São Paulo is favored to win the match with a mathematical probability of 51%
- São Paulo's home strength is defensively impressive, conceding an average of only 0.38 goals per home game
- Mirassol's goal production is stagnant, averaging 1.0 goals in recent matches, while the season average is 1.2
Risk Factors
- São Paulo averaged 3.4 shots on target in the last 5 matches
- Limited data available for duels won in recent matches
Overview
São Paulo (4th place, 20 points) host Mirassol (18th place, 9 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 26, 2026, 12:00 AM. São Paulo aims to solidify its position in the upper standings, while Mirassol battles against relegation
Form
São Paulo's form is LDWLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) in their last 5 matches across all competitions. The last game resulted in a loss, and there were two consecutive losses at the end of the previous sequence. Mirassol's form is LLLLW (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses) from their last 5 matches across all competitions. The last game was a win, ending a streak of losses. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
São Paulo has scored an average of 1.33 goals per game this season and conceded 0.92 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets. Mirassol has scored an average of 1.18 goals and conceded 1.55 goals per game and has yet to keep a clean sheet this season. São Paulo scored an average of 1.25 goals at home and conceded only 0.38 goals, with 2 clean sheets. Mirassol scored 1.2 goals per away game and conceded 1.6 goals
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches, São Paulo has no wins, while Mirassol has won both encounters. The goal difference is 0:5 in favor of Mirassol. The last meeting on October 19, 2025, ended with a 0:3 away victory for Mirassol. Mirassol has been recently dominant in direct clashes
Key Players
For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri is a key attacker with 6 season goals and 2 goals in his last 5 appearances. Luciano contributed 3 goals and 1 assist this season, with 1 goal in his last 5 matches. Danielzinho added 1 goal and 1 assist. For Mirassol, Alesson shines with 4 assists this season, 2 of which came in his last 5 games. Igor Formiga has scored 3 goals this season, including 1 in his last 5 appearances. Shaylon scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist this season, with 1 goal in his last 5 matches
Goalkeepers
Rafael is in goal for São Paulo, with an average rating of 6.78 in 12 appearances and contributing to 3 clean sheets for his team. Mirassol's goalkeeper is Walter, who has an average rating of 6.93 in 11 appearances and has not achieved any clean sheets this season
Influences
São Paulo benefits from a strong home advantage. The home team scored an average of 1.25 goals per game at home and conceded only 0.38 goals. The provided dataset does not contain information on weather influences or specific venue histories