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Serie A

Bahia - Santos

04/25/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Bahia
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Santos
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BAHSAN

Bahia

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Everaldo on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Everton Ribeiro   on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

Santos

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Neymar  not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Álvaro Barreal on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
71% of goal output missing (only 34% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Santos: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Santos with Gabriel Bontempo: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Bahia: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Santos: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

29%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Critical weakening for Santos: Only 34% of the usual goal threat is active, with Neymar (3G/2A) and Álvaro Barreal (2G/0A) among those missing
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Bahia with a 50% probability and 1.50 expected home goals
  • Bahia has been dominant in possession in their last 5 games with an average of 5.4 shots on target, while Santos recorded few attempts with 2.4 shots per game
Risk Factors
  • Santos concedes an average of 2.75 goals per away game
  • Santos recorded an average of only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Overview

Bahia (5th place, 20 points) host Santos (15th place, 13 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 25, 2026, 10:30 PM

Bahia aims to improve its position in the upper half of the table

Santos wants to stay away from the relegation battle

Form

Bahia's form in their last five matches is 'LWLWL'

This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses

Santos' form in their last five matches is 'DWLWL'

This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses for Santos

Both teams lost their last respective match

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Bahia scores an average of 1.36 goals and concedes 1.09 goals per game

In home games, the average is 1.33 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded

Bahia kept 4 clean sheets, 2 of them at home

In 6 of Bahia's matches, both teams scored, 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Santos scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes 1.58 goals per game

Away from home, the average is 1.5 goals scored but a high 2.75 goals conceded

Santos kept 3 clean sheets, 1 of them away

In 9 of Santos' matches, both teams scored, 7 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches, Bahia has achieved 1 win and 1 draw

Santos has not secured a victory yet

Bahia scored a total of 4 goals and conceded 2 goals

Bahia won the last encounter on August 24, 2025, with a score of 2:0

Bahia has shown dominance in recent direct duels

Key Players

For Bahia, Luciano Juba (4 goals, 1 assist, Ø 7.23 rating), Jean Lucas (2 goals, 2 assists, Ø 6.92 rating) and Willian José (2 goals, 1 assist, Ø 6.65 rating) are important players

For Santos, Thaciano (2 goals), Gonzalo Escobar (1 assist) and Christian Oliva (1 assist) are notable

Goalkeepers

Bahia's goalkeeper LĂ©o Vieira has made 4 appearances this season and achieved an average rating of 7.36

Bahia has kept 4 clean sheets this season, 2 of them in home games

Santos' goalkeeper DiĂłgenes has not made any appearances this season

Santos has recorded 3 clean sheets, 1 of them away from home

Influences

Bahia shows strong defensive performance at home, conceding only an average of 0.67 goals per home game

Santos, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2.75 goals per away game

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