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Serie A

Remo - Cruzeiro

04/25/2026, 09:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Remo
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Cruzeiro
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
REMCRU

Remo

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.43
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.38
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.17
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Alef Manga on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Gabriel Taliari on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 43% available)

Cruzeiro

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.32
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Matheus Pereira not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Remo with Gabriel Taliari: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Cruzeiro with KauĂŁ Moraes: 5.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Cruzeiro: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

29%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Significant weakening for Remo: Only 43% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available without Alef Manga and Gabriel Taliari
  • Cruzeiro's extreme away defensive weakness: An average of 4.67 goals conceded per away game this season
  • Cruzeiro shows positive form and trend: Three wins in the last five games and currently 2.0 goals per game, an increase from their season average of 1.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Remo generally shows a high vulnerability in defense, conceding an average of 1.83 goals per game
  • Cruzeiro must do without F. Soares de Faria, M. Costa Pereira, and L. Silva Borges due to yellow card suspensions
Overview

Remo (19th place, 8 points) hosts Cruzeiro (16th place, 13 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 25, 2026, 9:30 PM (UTC)

Both teams are in the lower half of the table, with Remo in a relegation spot and Cruzeiro just above it

Form

Remo's current form is WLDDL, meaning 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches

Their last game resulted in a 2-4 loss away against Bragantino

Cruzeiro's form is DWLWW, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Cruzeiro last won 2-0 at home against GrĂȘmio

Remo has one consecutive loss, while Cruzeiro has achieved two consecutive wins

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Remo scores an average of 1.08 goals and concedes 1.83 goals per game this season

At home, Remo scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.0 goals

Cruzeiro scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes 1.75 goals per game this season

Away from home, Cruzeiro scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes an extremely high 4.67 goals

Remo currently scores more often (1.8) than their season average (1.2)

Cruzeiro currently scores more often (2.0) than their season average (1.5)

Remo has achieved 1 clean sheet this season, while Cruzeiro has 3 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 6 of Remo's matches and 7 of Cruzeiro's matches

5 of Remo's matches and 8 of Cruzeiro's matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Key Players

For Remo, Marcelinho (defender) is in good form with 1 goal and 0 assists in 5 games and an average rating of 6.91 in the last 5 matches

Tchamba (defender) played 5 games, scored 0 goals and 0 assists with an average rating of 6.84

Marllon  (defender) scored 1 goal and 0 assists in 5 games with an average rating of 6.75

For Cruzeiro, Christian (midfielder) is in top form with 4 goals and 1 assist in 5 games and an average rating of 7.57

Keny Arroyo (attacker) recorded 0 goals and 2 assists in 5 games with an average rating of 7.09

Gerson (midfielder) scored 0 goals and 1 assist in 5 games with an average rating of 7.05

Goalkeepers

Remo relies on Marcelo Rangel, who achieved an average rating of 6.88 and 1 clean sheet this season

For Cruzeiro, Matheus Cunha is in goal, with an average rating of 6.48 and 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Remo scores an average of 1.14 goals at home and concedes 1.0 home goals

Cruzeiro concedes an average of 4.67 goals per away game

Remo plays counter-oriented in the last 5 games with an average of 42% possession

Cruzeiro plays a balanced style in the last 5 games with 54% possession and an average of 5.8 shots on target

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