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Serie A

Chapecoense - Bragantino

05/03/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Chapecoense
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Bragantino
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CHABRA

Chapecoense

Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 9, 11 places gap)
-0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.15
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
76% of goal output missing (only 41% available)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Bragantino

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.56
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.20
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 20, 11 places gap)
+0.07
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.07
Juninho Capixaba not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Henry Mosquera not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 58% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chapecoense with Everton: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Bragantino with Rodriguinho: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 3.4 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

29%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Chapecoense's squad impact is critical, with only 42% of their usual goal threat available
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 41% win probability for Bragantino, compared to 30% for Chapecoense
  • Bragantino shows significantly better form with 3 wins in their last 5 games, while Chapecoense recorded 4 losses
Risk Factors
  • Bragantino has a reduced starting XI strength, with key players Juninho Capixaba and Henry Mosquera missing, leaving only 59% of their usual goal threat available
  • Bragantino concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerability on the road
Overview

Chapecoense (20th place, 8 points) hosts Bragantino (9th place, 17 points) in Serie A on May 3, 2026, 11:30 PM. Chapecoense is currently at the bottom of the table, fighting for survival, while Bragantino is in mid-table, looking to pull away from the relegation zone.

Form

Chapecoense is in a difficult phase with a form of LDLLL in their last five matches, corresponding to 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses. Their recent trend shows three consecutive losses. Bragantino, on the other hand, shows a form of LWLWW with 3 wins and 2 losses. A loss followed a win in their last game. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Chapecoense scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes 2.0 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. Bragantino averages 1.15 goals scored and also 1.15 goals conceded per game. Away, Bragantino's offensive output is 1.33 goals scored and their defense concedes 2.33 goals per away game. Both teams scored in 7 of Chapecoense's 12 games and in 6 of Bragantino's 13 games.

Head-to-Head

There are no direct head-to-head matches between these two teams in the provided dataset.

Key Players

For Chapecoense, goalkeeper Anderson (8.64 season average rating in 1 appearance) and attackers Ênio (1 goal in 4 appearances, 7.31 average rating) and Marcinho (1 goal, 1 assist in 7 appearances, 6.67 average rating) are important players. For Bragantino, Isidro Pitta stands out with 4 goals and 1 assist in 12 appearances and an average rating of 6.85, followed by Lucas Barbosa with 2 goals and 1 assist in 12 appearances and an average rating of 7.07. Goalkeeper Tiago Volpi (6 appearances, 7.14 average rating) is also a key player for Bragantino.

Goalkeepers

Chapecoense's goalkeeper Anderson has a season average rating of 8.64 in 1 appearance and the team has 1 clean sheet in 12 games. Bragantino's goalkeeper Tiago Volpi has a season average rating of 7.14 in 6 appearances and the team has 4 clean sheets in 13 games.

Influences

Chapecoense scores an average of 1.0 goals per home game and concedes 1.5 goals per home game. Bragantino scores 1.33 goals per away game and concedes 2.33 goals per away game.

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