Serie A
Vitória - Coritiba
05/02/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.0
0.8
0:0
16%1:1
15%1:0
14%0:1
10%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Vitória
Coritiba
The Lab
- 1Vitória with Renato Kayzer: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Coritiba with JP Chermont: 0.6 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
34%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
60%
Under 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
31%
Under 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
14%
Under 3.5
86%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
40%
No
60%
Key Factors
- Pipeline forecast: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 40% probability
- Vitória's home defense: An average of only 0.25 goals conceded per home game with 5 clean sheets demonstrates a strong defense
- Coritiba's form: The team recently showed a more stable form with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
Risk Factors
- Limited data available for head-to-head matches, as no previous encounters were found
Overview
Vitória (13th place, 15 points) will host Coritiba (7th place, 19 points) in a Serie A match. The game is scheduled for May 2, 2026, 10:30 PM. Both teams are in the mid-table and are looking to improve their standings.
Form
Vitória's current form is L-D-W-D-L (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses). The home team lost their last away game against Athletico PR with a score of 1-3. Coritiba shows a form of L-D-D-D-W (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). They also suffered a 0-1 defeat in their last away match against Grêmio. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Vitória has scored an average of 1.00 goal per game and conceded 1.42 goals this season. At home, Vitória's defense is particularly strong, with only 0.25 goals conceded on average per home game and 5 clean sheets. Coritiba scores an average of 1.15 goals and concedes 1.00 goal per match. Away from home, Coritiba has scored an average of 1.11 goals and conceded 1.00 goal.
Head-to-Head
No previous head-to-head matches between these two teams were found in the dataset.
Key Players
For Vitória, key players include Matheuzinho (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 6.88), Ramon (2 goals, Avg Rating 6.68) and Cacá (1 goal, Avg Rating 6.72). Matheuzinho recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, Ramon 1 goal, and Cacá 1 goal. On Coritiba's side, Joaquín Lavega (3 goals, Avg Rating 6.70), Pedro Rocha (3 goals, Avg Rating 6.78) and Josué (4 assists, Avg Rating 7.00) stand out. Joaquín Lavega and Pedro Rocha each scored 1 goal in their last 5 games, while Josué contributed 1 assist. Not nominated for Vitória are Baralhas (2 goals/3 assists) and Renato Kayzer (2 goals/0 assists). For Coritiba, Breno Lopes (5 goals/1 assist) is not nominated.
Goalkeepers
Lucas Arcanjo, Vitória's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 7.09 in 9 season appearances. The team achieved 5 clean sheets. Pedro Rangel, Coritiba's goalkeeper, recorded an average rating of 7.19 in 10 appearances. The team kept 4 clean sheets.
Influences
Vitória shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.00 goal scored and only 0.25 goals conceded per home game. No specific data on venue history or weather conditions is available for this match.