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Serie A

Athletico PR - Grêmio

05/02/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Athletico PR
1.5
Total xG
2.1
Grêmio
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

17%

0:0

14%

2:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
APGRÊ

Athletico PR

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.39
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.10
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Luiz Gustavo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Dudu on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.52x league average)
-0.85
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.46
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (0.7 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.21
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.04
Carlos Vinícius not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists)
Francis Amuzu not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Erick Noriega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
79% of goal output missing (only 47% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Athletico PR: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Athletico PR with Gastón Benavídez: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Grêmio with Pedro Gabriel: 0.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Athletico PR: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

30%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis sees Athletico PR as favorites with 55%
  • Grêmio plays with only 47% of their usual starting lineup strength, with key players like Carlos Vinícius (7G/0A), Francis Amuzu (1G/2A), Erick Noriega (1G/1A) missing
  • Athletico PR shows strong offensive and stable defensive performance at home (1.5 goals scored, 0.5 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
  • Grêmio averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games (average)
  • Grêmio concedes an average of 3.67 goals per away game
  • Grêmio's goal production is stalling (0.7 goals in last 5 games), season average is 1.4 goals
Overview

Athletico PR (5th place, 22 points) host Grêmio (11th place, 16 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 2, 2026, 8:30 PM. Athletico PR aims to consolidate its position in the top third of the table, while Grêmio seeks to increase its distance from the relegation spots.

Form

Athletico PR's form across all competitions is LLWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). In their last 5 games, they recorded 2 wins and 3 losses, with the most recent result being a 3-1 win against Vitória. Grêmio shows a form of LDDLW in all competitions. They achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, with their last game being a 1-0 win against Coritiba.

Statistics

Athletico PR scores an average of 1.54 goals per game and concedes 1.15 goals. At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded. They kept 3 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches. Grêmio scores an average of 1.15 goals per game and concedes 1.23 goals. Away from home, they concede an average of 3.67 goals. They kept 4 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the 2 head-to-head matches between Athletico PR and Grêmio, there have been no home wins, with Grêmio winning both encounters. Grêmio scored 4 goals in these matches, while Athletico PR failed to score. The last meeting on August 4, 2024, ended in a 2-0 victory for Grêmio.

Key Players

For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros stands out with 8 goals and 1 assist, Lucas Esquivel with 1 goal and 3 assists, and Stiven Mendoza with 4 goals. For Grêmio, Cristian Pavón with an average rating of 7.08, goalkeeper Weverton with 1 assist and an average rating of 6.98, and Gustavo Martins with 2 assists and an average rating of 6.79 are the most relevant players.

Goalkeepers

Santos, Athletico PR's goalkeeper, played in 13 games and kept 3 clean sheets. Weverton, Grêmio's goalkeeper, also played 13 games and kept 4 clean sheets.

Influences

Athletico PR performs well at home, averaging 1.5 goals per home game and conceding only 0.5 goals. No data on venue history or weather conditions is available to influence the analysis.

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