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Serie A

Internacional - Fluminense

05/03/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Internacional
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Fluminense
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

10%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
INTFLU

Internacional

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.37
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 3, 14 places gap)
-0.19
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average)
+0.07
Vitinho on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Alan Patrick  on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Rafael Borré on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 66% available)
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1 goals/match)

Fluminense

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.15
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 17, 14 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.07
Jefferson Savarino on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Rodrigo Castillo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
HĂ©rcules on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Guga on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 61% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fluminense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Internacional: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Internacional with Thiago Maia: 4.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Fluminense: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Fluminense with Yeferson Soteldo: 8.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2.3 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

32%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Fluminense's offensive strength: They are currently scoring more often (2.0) than their season average (1.8) and average 1.67 goals per away game
  • Internacional's defensive home weakness: An average of 1.6 goals conceded in home games indicates vulnerability
  • Historical record: Fluminense dominated recent head-to-head encounters and won the last match
Risk Factors
  • Internacional is missing key goal scorers and playmakers (Vitinho, Alan Patrick , Rafael BorrĂ©), as only 66% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available
  • Fluminense has to play without several key players (Jefferson Savarino, Rodrigo Castillo, HĂ©rcules, Guga), which is reflected in a reduced 62% goal threat from the starting XI
Overview

Internacional (17th place, 14 points) hosts Fluminense (3rd place, 26 points) in a Serie A match

The game is scheduled for May 3, 2026, at 10:30 PM

Fluminense aims to close the gap to the top of the table, while Internacional fights to avoid relegation

Form

Internacional's form in their last five matches is 'DWDLD'

This includes 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Their last performance was a 2-2 away draw against Botafogo

Fluminense, on the other hand, shows a form of 'WDLWW'

They have achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Fluminense recently secured a 2-1 home win against Chapecoense and has a run of 2 consecutive wins

Fluminense currently appears to be in better form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Internacional averages 0.92 goals scored per game and concedes 1.08 goals

In home games, they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 7 of Internacional's 13 matches (54%)

Fluminense is more offensively potent with an average of 1.77 goals scored per game and 1.23 goals conceded

Away from home, Fluminense scores 1.67 goals per game and concedes 1.5 goals

Both teams scored in 10 of Fluminense's 13 matches (77%)

The pipeline analysis predicts 1.14 expected home goals for Internacional and 1.13 expected away goals for Fluminense

Head-to-Head

In the 4 previous head-to-head encounters, Internacional secured 1 win

Fluminense won 2 matches, and 1 game ended in a draw

The goal difference in these matches is 3:4 in favor of Fluminense

The last meeting on October 25, 2025, saw Fluminense win 1-0 away

Overall, the record shows a slight dominance by Fluminense in recent matchups

Key Players

For Internacional, Johan Carbonero (Attacker) is a key player with 2 season goals and 1 assist, including 1 goal in the last 5 games

Alexandro Bernabei (Defender) also contributed 2 season goals and 1 goal in the last 5 games

Alerrandro (Attacker) showed rising form with 1 season goal and 1 assist, including 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances

For Fluminense, John Kennedy (Attacker) stands out with 6 season goals and 3 goals in his last 5 games

AgustĂ­n Canobbio (Attacker) has 3 season goals and 1 assist

Guilherme Arana (Defender) is also notable with 1 season goal

Goalkeepers

Anthoni is in goal for Internacional, having played 3 matches so far this season

Internacional's team has kept 3 clean sheets this season

FĂĄbio guards the goal for Fluminense, with 13 appearances this season

Fluminense's team has also recorded 3 clean sheets

Influences

Internacional averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded in home games

Fluminense averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded in away games

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