đŸ‡§đŸ‡·

Serie A

Botafogo - Remo

05/02/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Botafogo
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Remo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BOTREM

Botafogo

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 19, 11 places gap)
+0.07
Edenilson on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Alexander Barboza on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Remo

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.86
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 8, 11 places gap)
-0.11
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.10
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
Gabriel Taliari not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Remo with Gabriel Taliari: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Botafogo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Botafogo with Allan: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Botafogo: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

32%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Form and Standings: Botafogo is in better form and significantly higher in the table than Remo
  • Offensive-Defensive Imbalance: Botafogo scores an average of 2.2 goals at home, while Remo concedes 3.0 goals away
  • Tactical Efficiency: Botafogo recently averaged 7.4 shots on target, compared to Remo's 2.8
Risk Factors
  • Remo concedes an alarming average of 3.0 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
  • Remo averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games (avgShotsOnTarget)
Overview

Botafogo (8th place, 17 points) host Remo (19th place, 8 points) in a Serie A match on May 2, 2026, 8:00 PM. Botafogo is in the mid-table, while Remo is fighting against relegation.

Form

Botafogo shows good current form with a WWDWD record in the last five games, which means 3 wins and 2 draws. Their last match ended in a draw. Remo, on the other hand, is in poor form with LDDLL, corresponding to 3 losses and 2 draws. The team lost their last two matches.

Statistics

Botafogo scores an average of 2.0 goals per game and concedes 2.0 goals per game this season. In 5 home games, Botafogo averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded. Remo scores an average of 1.0 goal per game and concedes 1.77 goals per game this season. In 5 away games, Remo averaged 1.0 goal scored and conceded an alarming 3.0 goals. Botafogo saw both teams score in 9 of 12 games and over 2.5 goals in 11 matches. Remo had both teams score in 6 of 13 games and over 2.5 goals in 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head data is available for these teams

Key Players

For Botafogo, midfielder Danilo stands out, with 7 goals and 2 assists in 10 season appearances, contributing 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games. Attacker Matheus Martins has scored 4 goals in 12 appearances and shows rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 games. Fellow attacker Arthur Cabral contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in 10 games, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 appearances. For Remo, Alef Manga is the most dangerous attacker with 2 goals and 3 assists in 13 season appearances, though his recent form has declined. Defender Marllon scored 1 goal in 13 games, with that goal coming in his last 5 appearances. Marcelinho, another defender, has scored 1 goal in 10 games, also scoring in his last 5 appearances with rising form.

Goalkeepers

Botafogo's goalkeeper, Neto, recorded 1 clean sheet this season. Remo's goalkeeper Marcelo Rangel also achieved 1 clean sheet this season.

Influences

No specific data on venue, weather, or historical surface records is available

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.