Serie A
Flamengo - Vasco da Gama
05/03/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.3
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
13%0:0
12%2:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Flamengo
Vasco da Gama
The Lab
- 1Vasco da Gama: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- 2Flamengo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 3Flamengo: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- 4Vasco da Gama: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Vasco da Gama with JosĂ© Luis RodrĂguez: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
31%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Flamengo with 47% probability
- Flamengo's current form with 4 wins in the last 5 games significantly outperforms Vasco da Gama's DLDWL streak
- Flamengo's home strength with an average of 2.20 goals scored and only 0.40 goals conceded contrasts with Vasco da Gama's away weakness of 2.00 goals conceded per game
Risk Factors
- Vasco da Gama concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game
- Vasco da Gama's recent goal production is an average of 1.0 goals per game, below the season average of 1.4 goals
Overview
Flamengo (2nd place, 26 points) host Vasco da Gama (13th place, 16 points) in a Serie A match on May 3, 2026, 7:00 PM. The home team aims to close the gap to the top of the table, while the visitors seek to distance themselves from the relegation zone
Form
Flamengo shows strong form with LWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) from their last five matches, including four wins and one loss. They are on a four-game winning streak. Vasco da Gama's form is weaker with DLDWL (one win, two draws, two losses). Their last match was a loss
Statistics
Flamengo scores an average of 2.00 goals per game and concedes 0.83 goals. At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 2.20 goals scored and only 0.40 goals conceded. They have kept five clean sheets. Vasco da Gama scores an average of 1.38 goals per game and concedes 1.46 goals. Away from home, they concede an average of 2.00 goals and have not kept any clean sheets. Both teams scored in eleven of Vasco da Gama's matches
Head-to-Head
In four head-to-head matches, Flamengo has one win, Vasco da Gama has no wins, and there have been three draws. Flamengo scored eight goals, while Vasco da Gama scored three. The last match on September 21, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw. The home team has dominated recent encounters
Key Players
Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 7 goals and 3 assists, holding an average rating of 7.29, and is in rising form. Samuel Lino contributed 2 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 6.98, also in rising form. Gonzalo Plata has scored 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.14. For Vasco da Gama, JosĂ© Luis RodrĂguez is an important player with 2 goals and 3 assists and an average rating of 7.2, showing rising form. David contributed 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.89. Thiago Mendes has 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.21
Goalkeepers
AgustĂn Rossi of Flamengo has an average rating of 7.08 this season and has kept 5 clean sheets in 12 appearances. LĂ©o Jardim of Vasco da Gama has a rating of 6.70 in 13 appearances and has not managed a clean sheet yet
Influences
Flamengo has scored an average of 2.20 goals and conceded only 0.40 goals at home, suggesting a strong home advantage. Vasco da Gama, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerability