Serie A
Mirassol - Corinthians
05/03/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.0
0.8
1:1
15%0:0
15%1:0
14%2:0
10%0:1
9%What influences the xG?
Mirassol
Corinthians
The Lab
- 1Mirassol with Edson Carioca : 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Corinthians with Gabriel Paulista: 0.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Mirassol: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- 4Corinthians: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Mirassol: 66% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
33%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Key Factors
- Pipeline forecast: The mathematical analysis shows a home win for Mirassol with 43% probability
- Corinthians' offense: The team averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Form: Mirassol has suffered 4 defeats in their last five games, while Corinthians recently drew and won
Risk Factors
- Corinthians has only 67% of usual goal production available due to absences
- Mirassol has kept 0 clean sheets in 0 season games
- Corinthians averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Mirassol (19th place, 9 points) host Corinthians (15th place, 15 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 4, 2026, 12:30 AM. Mirassol is deep in the relegation battle, while Corinthians is in the middle of the table.
Form
The form of both teams appears to be difficult. Mirassol has a form of LLLWL across all competitions with 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses from their last five matches. Their last game was a 0-1 away loss against São Paulo.
Corinthians shows a form of LLDDW with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last match was a 1-0 home win against Vasco da Gama.
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Mirassol averages 1.08 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.5 goals. In home games, the average is 1.17 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded.
Corinthians appears defensively stronger, averaging 0.69 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they averaged 0.67 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded.
Mirassol kept 0 clean sheets, while Corinthians kept 6 clean sheets this season.
Mirassol had both teams score (BTTS) in 7 matches, Corinthians in 5 matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of Mirassol's matches and 2 of Corinthians' matches.
Head-to-Head
In the previous 2 head-to-head matches, both Mirassol and Corinthians have 1 win each. The goal difference is 2:4 in favor of Corinthians. Corinthians won the last encounter away on October 5, 2025, with a 3-0 score. The recent record is even.
Key Players
For Mirassol, the standout players are: Igor Formiga (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 7.02 rating), Shaylon (1 goal, 1 assist, avg 6.72 rating), and Alesson (0 goals, 4 assists, avg 6.87 rating).
For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro (1 goal, 4 assists, avg 7.19 rating), Matheus Bidu (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.07 rating), and Gabriel Paulista (1 goal, 0 assists, avg 7.08 rating) are the key players.
Goalkeepers
Walter is Mirassol's goalkeeper, who has played in 12 games and has an average rating of 6.90. Mirassol recorded 0 clean sheets this season.
Hugo Souza is Corinthians' goalkeeper, with 11 appearances and an average rating of 6.91. Corinthians achieved 6 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Mirassol scored an average of 1.17 goals at home and conceded 1.5 goals. Corinthians scored an average of 0.67 goals away and conceded 0.83 goals. No data on weather-related influences is available.