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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro

05/03/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Cruzeiro
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Atlético Mineiro
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CRUAM

Cruzeiro

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.21
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07

Atlético Mineiro

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.04
Victor Hugo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Hulk  not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Tomás Cuello not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Reinier on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
75% of goal output missing (only 39% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético Mineiro with Tomás Pérez: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Cruzeiro with Kauã Moraes: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Cruzeiro: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

31%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Critical absences for Atlético Mineiro: Only 39% of usual goal production is available without Victor Hugo (3G/1A), Hulk  (1G/3A), Tomás Cuello (2G/1A), Reinier (1G/1A)
  • Strong form of Cruzeiro with three consecutive wins compared to Atlético Mineiro's series of three losses
  • Cruzeiro's solid home defense (0.78 goals conceded per game) meets Atlético Mineiro's vulnerable away defense (1.8 goals conceded per game)
Risk Factors
  • Historical record shows Atlético Mineiro has been dominant in head-to-head matches (recentDominant: "away")
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a low probability of over 2.5 goals at only 40%
Overview

Cruzeiro (12th place, 16 points) host Atlético Mineiro (15th place, 14 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on May 2, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams are in the mid-table, with Cruzeiro holding a slight lead going into the clash

Form

Cruzeiro is in strong form with three consecutive wins (WLWWW)

In their last five matches, Cruzeiro recorded 4 wins and 1 loss

The home team won their last game against Remo with a 1-0 score

Atlético Mineiro is going through a difficult period with three consecutive losses (WWLLL)

The away team registered 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches

Atlético Mineiro lost their last game against Flamengo with a 0-4 score

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Cruzeiro scores an average of 1.31 goals per game and concedes 1.62 goals per game this season

At home, Cruzeiro is defensively solid, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding only 0.78 goals per home game

The team kept 4 clean sheets in season games and 3 in home games

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.08 goals per game and concedes 1.46 goals per game

Away from home, Atlético Mineiro concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away game

The team kept 3 clean sheets in season games and 1 in away games

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches between Cruzeiro and Atlético Mineiro, Cruzeiro has not won a home game

Atlético Mineiro won 2 direct encounters, with 2 ending in a draw

The goal difference of 5:1 goals favors Atlético Mineiro

The last meeting on October 16, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

For Cruzeiro, Christian is an important midfielder with 5 goals and 1 assist this season and rising form

Matheus Pereira, also in midfield, shines with 2 goals and 2 assists and an average rating of 7.35

Keny Arroyo in attack contributed 1 goal and 2 assists and shows an upward trend in form

For Atlético Mineiro, Ruan in defense is active with 1 season goal

Forward Bernard contributed 1 season goal, with 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

Defender Natanael provided 2 assists this season, with 1 in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Otávio Costa is expected in goal for Cruzeiro, having no appearances this season

Cruzeiro has recorded 4 clean sheets this season, with 3 at home

Everson is in goal for Atlético Mineiro, with 13 season appearances, 1 assist, and an average rating of 6.91

Atlético Mineiro kept a clean sheet in 3 season games and 1 away game

Influences

Cruzeiro shows a good defensive performance at home, conceding an average of 0.78 goals per game

Atlético Mineiro concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away match

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