Serie A
São Paulo - Bahia
05/03/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.6
1.0
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%1:2
6%3:0
5%What influences the xG?
São Paulo
Bahia
The Lab
- 1São Paulo with André Silva: 3.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Bahia with Michel Araújo: 5.6 goals/90 min. Without: 2.2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Bahia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4São Paulo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Bahia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
28%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for São Paulo with a probability of 51%
- Bahia showed strong offensive play in the last 5 games with an average of 5.8 shots on target
- São Paulo has a robust home defense, conceding an average of only 0.38 goals per home game
Overview
São Paulo (4th place, 23 points) host Bahia (6th place, 21 points) in a Serie A match on May 3, 2026, 7:00 PM
São Paulo aims to solidify their position in the upper ranks of the table
Bahia seeks to close the gap on the top teams
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
São Paulo's form across all competitions: DWLLW
In their last 5 matches, São Paulo recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
The last result was a win, giving the team a winning streak of 1 game
Bahia's form across all competitions: WLWLD
Bahia achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
The last result was a draw, giving the team a drawing streak of 1 game
Statistics
São Paulo has scored an average of 1.31 goals per game and conceded an average of 0.85 goals this season
At home, São Paulo scored an average of 1.38 goals and conceded an average of 0.38 goals
Both teams failed to score in 6 matches, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches
Bahia has scored an average of 1.42 goals per game and conceded an average of 1.17 goals this season
Away from home, Bahia scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded an average of 1.60 goals
Both teams scored in 7 matches, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches
Head-to-Head
There have been a total of 4 head-to-head matches between São Paulo and Bahia
São Paulo won 3 of these matches, while Bahia won 1
There were no draws between the two teams
São Paulo scored 9 goals, while Bahia scored 3 goals
The last encounter on October 26, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for São Paulo
São Paulo has been dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
The key players for São Paulo are:
Jonathan Calleri (Attacker) with 6 goals and 0 assists, average rating 6.96, with a declining form trend recently
Luciano (Attacker) with 4 goals and 1 assist, average rating 7.12, with a stable form trend recently
Wendell (Defender) with 0 goals and 2 assists, average rating 6.76, with a stable form trend recently
Not nominated: Marcos Antônio (0 goals, 2 assists)
The key players for Bahia are:
Luciano Juba (Defender) with 5 goals and 1 assist, average rating 7.26, with a stable form trend recently
Willian José (Attacker) with 3 goals and 1 assist, average rating 6.74, with a stable form trend recently
Jean Lucas (Midfielder) with 2 goals and 2 assists, average rating 6.90, with a stable form trend recently
Not nominated: Everaldo (3 goals, 0 assists)
Goalkeepers
São Paulo's goalkeeper is Rafael, who played in 13 matches and kept 4 clean sheets
Bahia's goalkeeper is Léo Vieira, who played in 5 matches and kept 4 clean sheets
Influences
São Paulo demonstrates a strong home performance with an average of 1.38 goals scored and only 0.38 goals conceded per home game
Bahia, on the other hand, concedes an average of 1.60 goals per away game