Serie A
Palmeiras - Santos
05/02/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.2
0.8
1:0
14%1:1
14%0:0
12%2:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Palmeiras
Santos
The Lab
- 1Palmeiras: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)
- 2Santos: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- 3Santos with Gabriel Bontempo: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Santos: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Palmeiras: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
30%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Palmeiras' strong home performance (1.86 goals scored, 0.57 goals conceded) faces Santos' weak away defense (2.17 goals conceded)
- Palmeiras shows excellent form (4 wins in 5 games), while Santos' form (2 losses in 5 games) is considered unstable
- The clear league positions (Palmeiras 1st place, Santos 17th place) support the favorite role, backed by a 51% home win probability
Risk Factors
- Santos concedes an average of 2.17 goals per away game
- Santos averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Palmeiras (1st place, 32 points) host Santos (17th place, 14 points) in Serie A
The match takes place on May 2, 2026, 10:30 PM
Palmeiras is currently the league leader and aims to consolidate their top position
Santos is in a relegation battle and desperately needs points
Form
Palmeiras shows strong form with WWDWW in their last 5 games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This corresponds to 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses
Palmeiras won their last two games consecutively
Santos' form is more unstable with WLWLD in their last 5 games
This represents 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
In their last match, Santos achieved a draw after a loss
Palmeiras recently won 1-0 away against Bragantino and 1-0 at home against Athletico PR
Santos drew 2-2 away against Bahia and lost 2-3 at home against Fluminense
Statistics
Palmeiras averages 1.77 goals per game and concedes 0.77 goals
At home, these values are even better: 1.86 goals scored and 0.57 goals conceded per home game
Santos averages 1.38 goals per game and concedes 1.62 goals
Away from home, Santos concedes an average of 2.17 goals while scoring 1.33 goals
Palmeiras recorded 5 clean sheets and had 8 games where both teams scored
Santos achieved 3 clean sheets and had 10 games where both teams scored
Palmeiras' goal production has recently stalled (1.5 goals), compared to a season average of 1.9 goals
Santos scores consistently at approximately 1.6 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches, there has been one win for Palmeiras and one for Santos respectively
Palmeiras scored 2 goals, Santos scored 1 goal
Santos won the last encounter 1-0 away on November 16, 2025
Previously, Palmeiras won 2-0 at home on November 7, 2025
The record of recent duels is even
Key Players
Key players for Palmeiras include Andreas Pereira (1 goal, 9 assists), José Manuel López (4 goals, 3 assists), and Marlon Freitas (2 goals, 1 assist)
Marlon Freitas has shown strong form in the last 5 games with 2 goals
For Santos, Gabriel Barbosa (4 goals, 2 assists), BenjamĂn Rollheiser (2 goals), and Ălvaro Barreal (2 goals) stand out
Gabriel Barbosa delivered 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games
BenjamĂn Rollheiser scored 2 goals in his last 3 games, his form is rising
Not selected for Palmeiras are Allan (3G/0A) and RamĂłn Sosa (1G/1A)
Not selected for Santos are Neymar (3G/2A) and Thaciano (2G/0A)
Goalkeepers
Palmeiras' goalkeeper Carlos Miguel made 13 season appearances and kept 5 clean sheets
Santos' goalkeeper Gabriel BrazĂŁo played in 12 games and achieved 3 clean sheets
Influences
Palmeiras benefits from a clear home advantage with an average of 1.86 home goals scored and only 0.57 home goals conceded
The mathematical analysis calculates a home win probability of 51%