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Serie A

Remo - Palmeiras

05/10/2026, 08:40 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Remo
0.9
Total xG
2.0
Palmeiras
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

10%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
REMPAL

Remo

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.95
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.48
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 1, 18 places gap)
-0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Gabriel Taliari not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)

Palmeiras

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.26
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 19, 18 places gap)
+0.08
Mauricio on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Palmeiras: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Remo with Gabriel Poveda: 8.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Palmeiras with Felipe Anderson: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Remo: 65% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

34%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Table and Form Disparity: Palmeiras leads the league and is unbeaten in 5 games, while Remo is 19th and has only 1 win in their last 5 matches
  • Palmeiras' Defensive Strength: Palmeiras concedes only 0.79 goals per game on average this season (1.0 away), compared to Remo's 1.71 goals conceded per game
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis projects an away win with 38% probability, or an away win or draw with 72% probability
Risk Factors
  • Remo's Home Defensive Performance: Remo has conceded an average of 1.14 goals in home games and has not achieved any clean sheets
  • Palmeiras' Recent Goal Drought: Palmeiras' goal production has recently stalled (averaging 1.3 goals in recent games), while their season average is 1.9 goals
  • Remo's Tactical Approach: Remo played counter-oriented in the last 5 games with 44% possession and an average of 3.8 shots on target
Overview

Remo (19th place, 11 points) host Palmeiras (1st place, 33 points) in a Serie A match on May 10, 2026, 7:00 PM

Palmeiras aims to extend their lead at the top of the table

Remo is fighting against relegation

Form

Remo's form in the last five games (all competitions): DDLLW (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

Remo last won away 2-1 against Botafogo

Palmeiras' form in the last five games (all competitions): WDWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)

Palmeiras last drew 1-1 at home against Santos

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Remo has scored an average of 1.07 goals and conceded 1.71 goals per game this season

In home games, Remo has scored an average of 1.14 goals and conceded 1.14 goals

Remo recorded 1 clean sheet throughout the season, with 7 both teams to score matches and 6 over 2.5 goals matches

Palmeiras has scored an average of 1.71 goals and conceded 0.79 goals per game this season

In away games, Palmeiras has scored an average of 1.67 goals and conceded 1.0 goals

Palmeiras recorded 5 clean sheets throughout the season, with 9 both teams to score matches and 8 over 2.5 goals matches

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not contain any direct head-to-head meetings between Remo and Palmeiras

Key Players

Remo has the following key players:

Alef Manga (3 goals, 3 assists this season, Avg. 6.93 Rating, stable form)

Jajá (2 goals, 1 assist this season, Avg. 6.72 Rating, stable form)

Marcelinho (1 goal, 0 assists this season, Avg. 6.73 Rating, rising form)

Not nominated: Gabriel Taliari (3 goals, 0 assists)

Palmeiras has the following key players:

Andreas Pereira (1 goal, 10 assists this season, Avg. 7.36 Rating, declining form)

José Manuel López (5 goals, 3 assists this season, Avg. 7.08 Rating, declining form)

Marlon Freitas (2 goals, 1 assist this season, Avg. 7.08 Rating, rising form)

Not nominated: Mauricio (1 goal, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Remo's goalkeeper, Marcelo Rangel, has an average rating of 6.96 this season and 1 clean sheet

Palmeiras' goalkeeper, Carlos Miguel, has an average rating of 7.05 this season and 5 clean sheets

Influences

Remo has scored an average of 1.14 goals and conceded 1.14 goals in home games

Palmeiras has scored an average of 1.67 goals and conceded 1.0 goals in away games

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