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Serie A

Bahia - Cruzeiro

05/10/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Bahia
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Cruzeiro
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
BAHCRU

Bahia

Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.32
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.15
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Cristian Olivera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Cruzeiro

Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap)
-0.11
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Christian on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Kaio Jorge  on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Keny Arroyo not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Kaiki not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
39% of goal output missing (only 63% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruzeiro with Bruno Rodrigues: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Bahia with Michel AraĂșjo: 6.9 goals/90 min. Without: 2.2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Bahia: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Bahia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

30%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 44% for Bahia and a 74% probability for a home win or a draw.
  • Bahia boasts a solid home defense, conceding an average of only 0.86 goals per home game.
  • Cruzeiro exhibits an extremely weak away defense, allowing an average of 3.50 goals per away game.
Risk Factors
  • Cruzeiro has only 63% of their usual starting eleven's offensive strength available due to the absence of Christian (5G/1A), Kaio Jorge (3G/0A), Keny Arroyo (1G/2A), and Kaiki (0G/2A).
  • Bahia's recent form is inconsistent with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches.
  • In head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro has been dominant recently, winning two of the four previous encounters.
Overview

Bahia (6th place, 22 points) hosts Cruzeiro (15th place, 16 points) in a Serie A match on May 10, 2026, 1:00 AM. Bahia aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table, while Cruzeiro needs crucial points in their fight against relegation.

Form

Bahia's form in their last five matches is LWLDD, with one win, two draws, and two losses. Their last game ended in a draw. Cruzeiro shows a form of LWWWL, with three wins and two losses. Their last game was a loss. Bahia has achieved one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Cruzeiro has recorded three wins and two losses in their last five games.

Statistics

Bahia averages 1.46 goals scored per game and concedes 1.23 goals per game this season. At home, the average is 1.43 goals scored and only 0.86 goals conceded. Bahia has kept four clean sheets this season. Cruzeiro averages 1.29 goals scored per game and concedes 1.71 goals per game. Their away record is significantly weaker with 1.25 goals scored and 3.50 goals conceded per away game. Cruzeiro also recorded four clean sheets. Venue data does not allow for a statement on the general game character.

Head-to-Head

In four head-to-head encounters, Bahia has one win, Cruzeiro has two wins, and there has been one draw. Bahia scored a total of 6 goals, while Cruzeiro scored 7 goals. The last match on September 15, 2025, ended in a 1:2 away win for Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro has been the more dominant side in recent direct matchups.

Key Players

For Bahia, Luciano Juba (Defender) with 6 goals and 1 assist, Mateo Sanabria (Attacker) with 1 goal and 1 assist, and Erick (Midfielder) with 2 goals are key players. Luciano Juba has a stable form trend with 3 goals in his last 5 games. Mateo Sanabria and Erick show a rising form trend, with Sanabria scoring 1 goal in just 82 minutes and Erick scoring 1 goal in 123 minutes in their last 5 games. For Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira (Midfielder) with 2 goals and 2 assists, NĂ©iser Villarreal (Attacker) with 3 goals, and Lucas Romero (Midfielder) with 1 goal and 2 assists are notable. Matheus Pereira and Lucas Romero have a stable form trend, and NĂ©iser Villarreal also shows stable form.

Goalkeepers

Bahia's goalkeeper, LĂ©o Vieira, had an average rating of 7.4 in six appearances. Bahia has kept two home clean sheets this season. For Cruzeiro, OtĂĄvio Costa is expected, who has an average rating of 6.07 in one appearance. Cruzeiro kept one clean sheet in an away game.

Influences

Bahia displays a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.86 goals per game. The home team has scored an average of 1.43 goals per home game. Cruzeiro, on the other hand, is very vulnerable defensively away from home, conceding an average of 3.50 goals per away game. No data is available for weather-related or stadium-specific influences.

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