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Serie A

Coritiba - Internacional

05/09/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Coritiba
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Internacional
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

12%

0:1

11%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
CORINT

Coritiba

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.87
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Breno Lopes not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)

Internacional

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.28
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.04
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.01
Vitinho on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Rafael Borré on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Internacional: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 2
    Internacional with Matheus Bahia: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Coritiba with JP Chermont: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

33%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Tight prediction: The analysis model predicts a very close match with a high draw probability of 34%.
  • Form differences: Internacional shows slightly better form with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games compared to Coritiba (1 win, 2 draws).
  • Tactical approach: Internacional recently averaged 5.4 shots on target (offensively strong), while Coritiba plays counter-attacking football and only managed 3.2 shots on target (average).
Risk Factors
  • Internacional is missing Vitinho and Rafael BorrĂ©, leaving only 63% of the usual starting eleven's assists available.
  • Coritiba averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games.
Overview

Coritiba (8th place, 19 points) host Internacional (12th place, 17 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 9, 2026, 4:00 PM. Both teams are in the mid-table and aim to improve their position.

Form

Coritiba's form in the last five matches is DDWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. The team lost their last two consecutive matches. Internacional shows a form of WDLDW, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. Internacional won their last match, ending a streak of one draw.

Statistics

Coritiba scored an average of 1.14 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 1.21 goals. At home, the average is 1.25 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per home game, with 2 clean sheets. Internacional scored an average of 1 goal per match this season and also conceded 1 goal. Away from home, Internacional scored an average of 1 goal and conceded 0.86 goals per away match, with 1 away clean sheet. Coritiba is scoring consistently (~1.2 goals per game) based on season average and recent form. Internacional is currently scoring more frequently (1.5) than their season average (1.1).

Head-to-Head

No data on previous head-to-head encounters was found.

Key Players

For Coritiba, Pedro Rocha stands out, having scored 4 goals in 14 season appearances and contributing 2 goals in the last 5 games, showing stable form. Josué, a midfielder, has 4 assists in 13 appearances and one assist in the last 5 games with stable form. Joaquín Lavega, an attacker, scored 3 season goals and 1 goal in the last 5 games. For Internacional, Alerrandro, an attacker with 2 season goals and 2 assists, plus 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games with rising form, is a key player. Johan Carbonero contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 14 appearances, with 1 goal in the last 5 games. Alexandro Bernabei, a defender, scored 3 goals in 12 season appearances and 2 goals in the last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Coritiba's goalkeeper Pedro Rangel played 11 season games and kept 4 clean sheets, with a stable form development in the last 5 matches. For Internacional, Sergio Rochet was in goal for 10 season games and recorded 4 clean sheets, also with stable form in the last 5 matches.

Influences

Coritiba showed a solid performance in home games with an average of 1.25 goals scored and 1 goal conceded. Internacional scored an average of 1 goal away and conceded 0.86 goals per game. No data is available regarding weather influence.

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