Serie A
Grêmio - Flamengo
05/10/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.5
1.3
1:1
14%0:0
10%0:1
9%1:2
9%1:0
8%What influences the xG?
Grêmio
Flamengo
The Lab
- 1Flamengo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Grêmio with Viery: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Flamengo: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- 4Flamengo with Bruno Henrique : 10.4 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 5Flamengo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
30%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win probability of 39% for Flamengo
- Flamengo's form is positive with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last five matches
- Flamengo's offense averaged 6.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
- Grêmio's home defense is very stable, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per game
- Grêmio's current goal production has sharply declined, averaging 0.5 goals recently
Overview
Grêmio (15th place, 17 points) hosts Flamengo (2nd place, 27 points) in a Serie A match on May 10, 2026, 7:30 PM
Flamengo is fighting for the top spot and aims to close the gap on league leader Palmeiras
Grêmio is closer to the relegation zone and needs points to move away from the bottom ranks
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Grêmio has shown the form DDLWD in their last five matches
This means 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss for the home team
Flamengo's form in their last five matches is WWWWD
This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 draw for the visitors
Grêmio's goal production is currently stagnant with an average of 0.5 goals, compared to their season average of 1.4 goals
Flamengo is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 2.6 goals, their season average is 2.0 goals
Statistics
Grêmio scores an average of 1.07 goals per game and concedes 1.14 goals
At home, Grêmio's goal average is 1.1 goals, while goals conceded are only 0.5 per home game
Flamengo is offensively strong with an average of 2.0 goals per game
Flamengo's defense concedes an average of 0.92 goals per game
Away from home, Flamengo scores an average of 1.86 goals and concedes 1.14 goals
Both teams scored in 7 Grêmio games and 7 Flamengo games
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 Grêmio games and 9 Flamengo games
Head-to-Head
There have been 4 direct encounters between Grêmio and Flamengo so far
Grêmio won 1 match, Flamengo won 2, and 1 game ended in a draw
The goal difference is 5:7 in favor of Flamengo
The last direct encounter on August 31, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
Flamengo has been the more dominant team in recent meetings
Key Players
Carlos Vinícius is an important attacker for Grêmio with 7 season goals and an average rating of 6.96
Francis Amuzu contributed 1 goal and 2 assists this season
Cristian Pavón has a season average rating of 7.12
Flamengo's Pedro is a key player with 8 season goals and 3 assists, holding a rating of 7.38
Samuel Lino recorded 2 goals and 5 assists for the season performance
Gonzalo Plata contributed 2 season goals and 2 assists, with an average rating of 7.13
Goalkeepers
Grêmio's goalkeeper Weverton recorded 5 clean sheets this season
His form trend is rising with a last average rating of 7.47
Flamengo's goalkeeper Agustín Rossi also achieved 5 clean sheets
He also shows a rising form trend with a last average rating of 7.43
Influences
Grêmio shows a very strong defense at home, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per game
Flamengo has a strong away offense, scoring an average of 1.86 goals per game