Serie A
Mirassol - Chapecoense
05/10/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
2.9
0.9
2:0
11%1:1
11%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Mirassol
Chapecoense
The Lab
- 1Chapecoense with João Vitor: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Mirassol: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- 3Mirassol with Victor Luís: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Mirassol: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Chapecoense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
63%
Draw
23%
Away Win
14%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
86%
Away or Draw
37%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Mirassol with a probability of 63%
- Chapecoense conceded an average of 4.5 goals per away game this season
- Mirassol has achieved 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games, while Chapecoense shows weaker form with 1 draw and 4 losses
Risk Factors
- For Mirassol, only 67% of the usual goal production is available due to absences
- Chapecoense recorded an average of only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Mirassol (18th place, 12 points) host Chapecoense (20th place, 8 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 10:30 PM. Both teams are in the relegation zone and are fighting for crucial points at the bottom of the table.
Form
Mirassol's current form across all competitions is LLWLW, which corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses. Chapecoense shows a form of DLLLL with 1 draw and 4 losses. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Mirassol scored an average of 1.15 goals per game this season and conceded 1.46 goals. At home, the average is 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded. Mirassol had 0 clean sheets this season. Both teams scored in 8 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 games. Chapecoense scored an average of 1.0 goals and conceded 2.0 goals. Away from home, their defense is particularly weak, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per game. Chapecoense achieved 1 clean sheet, and in 8 games both teams scored. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches.
Head-to-Head
No data is available for previous head-to-head encounters between Mirassol and Chapecoense.
Key Players
For Mirassol, Alesson stands out with 4 season assists (2 in the last 5 games and a rating of 6.96), and Carlos Eduardo with 1 season goal and 1 assist, also scoring 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.08. André Luis contributed 1 season goal and also scored once in his last 5 appearances, with a rating of 6.74. For Chapecoense, Yannick Bolasie and Ênio are important attacking players, each with 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last 5 games. Bolasie also has 1 season assist and Ênio has a rating of 7.46 in the last 5 games. Marcinho scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last 5 appearances.
Goalkeepers
For Mirassol, Walter is in goal, with 0 clean sheets in 13 appearances. For Chapecoense, Anderson has played 2 games and kept 0 clean sheets. Chapecoense recorded a total of 1 clean sheet this season.
Influences
Mirassol scored an average of 1.12 goals at home and conceded 1.25 goals. Chapecoense's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, allowing an average of 4.5 goals per game.