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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo

05/10/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético Mineiro
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Botafogo
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
AMBOT

Atlético Mineiro

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.70
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.33
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Victor Hugo not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Hulk  not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Natanael on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Reinier on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Botafogo

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.89
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.08
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.06
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.01
Vitinho not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlético Mineiro with Tomás Pérez: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Botafogo with Allan: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 2.1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Botafogo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

32%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Atlético Mineiro's goal production has stalled recently (1.0 goals per game), while their season average is 1.2 goals
  • Botafogo is currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals per game) than their season average (1.9 goals)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a rather balanced match outcome with a 37% home win, 32% draw, and 31% away win
Risk Factors
  • Botafogo concedes an average of 2.14 goals per away game
  • The pipeline analysis calculates only a 39% probability for over 2.5 goals, suggesting a potentially low-scoring game
  • The prediction is very tight, with a home win probability of 37% and an away win of 31%
Overview

Atlético Mineiro (13th place, 17 points) host Botafogo (12th place, 17 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 8:00 PM

Both teams are level on points in the mid-table

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Atlético Mineiro's last five games show a WLLLW form (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)

Their last result was a 3-1 away win against Cruzeiro

This was preceded by three consecutive losses

Botafogo's last five games show a WDWDL form (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Their last match ended in a 1-2 home loss against Remo

Statistics

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.21 goals per game and concedes 1.43 goals

Botafogo is stronger offensively with 1.92 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game

For Atlético Mineiro, 5 games ended with both teams scoring and 7 games had over 2.5 goals

Botafogo saw both teams score in 10 games and over 2.5 goals in 12 games

Atlético Mineiro averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded at home

Botafogo averages 1.86 goals scored and 2.14 goals conceded away

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Atlético Mineiro recorded 1 win, Botafogo 2 wins, and 1 draw

Botafogo scored 4 goals and conceded 1 goal

The last direct encounter on September 20, 2025, was a 1-0 away win for Botafogo

Botafogo has been dominant in recent matchups

Key Players

Atlético Mineiro:

Tomás Cuello (Attacker) registered 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.21

Mateo Cassierra (Attacker) scored 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 4 games with a rating of 6.94

Renan Lodi (Defender) provided 1 assist in the last 5 games and achieved a rating of 6.98

Additionally, Victor Hugo (3 goals, 1 assist), Hulk (1 goal, 3 assists), Natanael (0 goals, 2 assists), and Reinier (1 goal, 1 assist) are not nominated

Botafogo:

Matheus Martins (Attacker) scored 3 goals in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.45

Danilo (Midfielder) recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.39

Edenilson (Midfielder) contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.96

Additionally, Vitinho (0 goals, 2 assists) is not nominated

Goalkeepers

Everson of Atlético Mineiro made 14 appearances and kept 3 clean sheets

Neto of Botafogo played 6 matches and recorded 1 clean sheet

Influences

Atlético Mineiro scores 1.29 goals and concedes 1.43 goals at home

Botafogo scores 1.86 goals and concedes 2.14 goals away

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