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Serie A

Fluminense - Vitória

05/09/2026, 09:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Fluminense
1.9
Total xG
2.6
Vitória
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FLUVIT

Fluminense

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.34
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap)
+0.05
Agustín Canobbio on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Rodrigo Castillo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Hércules on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Guga on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.53x league average)
-0.61
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.41
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.33
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap)
-0.05
Erick not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Matheuzinho not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória with Ronald: 5.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Fluminense with Ganso: 6.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Fluminense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Fluminense: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Fluminense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

62%

Draw

24%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

38%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Fluminense is the clear favorite with a 62% win probability according to mathematical analysis
  • Vitória concedes an average of 5.0 goals per away game
  • Fluminense has shown possession dominance (64% possession) and averaged 6.2 shots on target in the last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Vitória is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.3)
  • Fluminense's goal production has recently stalled (1.4 goals per game)
Overview

Fluminense (3rd place, 26 points) host Vitória (9th place, 18 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 9, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Fluminense aims to solidify its position in the top group, while Vitória will try to climb the table

Form

Fluminense's form (all competitions): DLWWL. This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from the last 5 games. Vitória shows the form DWDLW with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 games. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Fluminense scores an average of 1.64 goals and concedes 1.29 goals per game. At home, they score 1.62 and concede 0.88 goals. Vitória scores an average of 1.23 goals and concedes 1.38 goals. Away, Vitória concedes an average of 5.0 goals and scores 1.33 goals. Fluminense has 3 clean sheets, Vitória 5. For Fluminense, 10 games ended with 'Both teams scored', for Vitória 6. Fluminense had 8 Over 2.5 games, Vitória 5

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, there was 1 home win, 2 away wins, and 1 draw. Fluminense scored 3 goals, Vitória scored 4 goals. The last encounter was won by Vitória on September 20, 2025, with a score of 1:0. Vitória has been more dominant in recent direct encounters

Key Players

For Fluminense, John Kennedy (6 goals, 0 assists), Luciano Acosta (3 goals, 3 assists) and Jefferson Savarino (3 goals, 2 assists) are important players. John Kennedy showed stable form in the last 5 games with 2 goals. Luciano Acosta had 0 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games. Jefferson Savarino is in rising form with 3 goals in the last 5 games. For Vitória, Baralhas  (2 goals, 3 assists), Renê (2 goals, 1 assist) and Renato Kayzer (2 goals, 0 assists) are notable. Baralhas  showed stable form in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist. Renê is also in stable form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Renato Kayzer showed stable form but had no goals or assists in 3 games

Goalkeepers

Fluminense's goalkeeper Fábio kept 3 clean sheets this season. Vitória's goalkeeper Lucas Arcanjo achieved 5 clean sheets this season

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