Serie A
Corinthians - São Paulo
05/10/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
1.8
1.0
0:0
18%1:1
15%0:1
14%1:0
12%0:2
8%What influences the xG?
Corinthians
São Paulo
The Lab
- 1Corinthians with Gabriel Paulista: 0.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2São Paulo with Artur: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3São Paulo: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 4Ferreirinha: 3 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
36%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
57%
Under 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
28%
Under 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
12%
Under 3.5
88%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
64%
Both Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Key Factors
- São Paulo's offensive strength: The team is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 1.6 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.4 goals).
- Corinthians' low goal production: Their goal production is stalling (Avg. 0.7 goals), with a season average of Avg. 0.9 goals.
- High draw probability: Mathematical analysis indicates a draw as the most likely outcome with 36%.
Risk Factors
- Corinthians averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches.
- São Paulo concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game.
- Corinthians scores only an average of 0.71 home goals per game.
Overview
Corinthians (17th place, 15 points) hosts São Paulo (4th place, 24 points) in a Serie A derby. The match is on May 10, 2026, 10:30 PM. Corinthians is battling relegation, while São Paulo aims for a top spot.
Form
Corinthians' last five matches show a form of LDDWL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses). Their last game was a 1:2 loss against Mirassol. São Paulo, on the other hand, has a form of WLLWD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). São Paulo's last match ended in a 2:2 draw against Bahia.
Statistics
Corinthians has scored an average of 0.71 goals per game this season and conceded 0.93 goals. At home, they scored 0.71 goals per game and conceded 0.86. São Paulo averages 1.36 goals per game and conceded 0.93 goals. Away from home, São Paulo scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 2.0. Corinthians achieved 6 clean sheets, while São Paulo managed 4. For Corinthians, both teams scored in 6 games, and 3 games had over 2.5 goals. For São Paulo, both teams scored in 7 games, and 5 games had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In four previous head-to-head encounters, Corinthians secured one victory, while São Paulo won two matches and one ended in a draw. The goal difference is 6:8 in favor of São Paulo. The last time these teams met, Corinthians won 3:1 on November 20, 2025.
Key Players
For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro is a key midfielder with 1 goal and 4 assists, boasting an average rating of 7.14. Matheus Bidu (2 goals, 1 assist, rating 7.01) and Gabriel Paulista (1 goal, 0 assists, rating 7.02) are also notable. For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri stands out with 6 goals and 1 assist (rating 6.94), Luciano with 4 goals and 1 assist (rating 7.1), and Ferreirinha with 4 goals (rating 7.13).
Goalkeepers
Corinthians' goalkeeper Hugo Souza featured in 12 appearances, with the team achieving 6 clean sheets. São Paulo's goalkeeper Rafael played in 14 appearances, and the team recorded 4 clean sheets.
Influences
Corinthians scored an average of 0.71 goals at home and conceded 0.86. São Paulo scored an average of 1.5 goals away and conceded 2.0.