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Serie A

Santos - Bragantino

05/10/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Santos
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Bragantino
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
SANBRA

Santos

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.57
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 7, 9 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Gabriel Barbosa on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)

Bragantino

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.12
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 16, 9 places gap)
+0.05
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)

  • 2
    Santos with Gabriel Bontempo: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Bragantino with Matheus Fernandes: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Santos: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

33%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Bragantino's current form, with 3 wins in 5 games, is significantly better than Santos'
  • Bragantino's offensive performance has improved, averaging 1.6 goals in recent games compared to 1.2 goals season average
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match, with almost equal probabilities for all three outcomes
Risk Factors
  • Santos has shown inconsistent performance recently with only one win, two draws, and two losses in the last five games
  • Neymar's form has been declining recently with a trend delta of -0.26
  • The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of a draw at 33%
Overview

Santos (16th place, 15 points) host Bragantino (7th place, 20 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 10:30 PM. Santos is fighting against relegation, while Bragantino is playing for an international spot

Form

Santos' form in the last five games across all competitions: L W L D D (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

The last two games ended in a draw

Bragantino's form in the last five games across all competitions: W L W L W (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

The last game was a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Santos averages 1.36 goals scored per game and concedes 1.57 goals per game this season

At home, Santos averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 11 of 14 games

Bragantino averages 1.21 goals scored per game and concedes 1.14 goals per game this season

Away from home, Bragantino averages 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded

Bragantino kept 4 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

In the last two head-to-head matches, Bragantino secured one win and one draw

Bragantino scored 4 goals, Santos scored 3 goals

The last match ended 2:2 on September 28, 2025

Bragantino has been more dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

For Santos, Neymar (3 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 7.35), Benjamín Rollheiser (3 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 6.95), and Álvaro Barreal (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 6.74) are key players

Neymar's form has been declining recently, while BenjamĂ­n Rollheiser shows a rising form trend

For Bragantino, Isidro Pitta (4 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 6.83), Lucas Barbosa (3 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.13), and Juninho Capixaba (2 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 7.18) are notable

Isidro Pitta is in rising form

Goalkeepers

Santos' goalkeeper DiĂłgenes has played 1 game so far and has no season goals or assists

Santos kept 3 clean sheets this season

Bragantino's goalkeeper Tiago Volpi has played 7 season games and has no goals or assists

Bragantino achieved 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Santos scores an average of 1.43 goals at home and concedes 1.14 goals

Bragantino scores an average of 1.20 goals away and concedes 1.60 goals

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