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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - Athletico PR

05/10/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Vasco da Gama
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Athletico PR
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
VDGAP

Vasco da Gama

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Cuiabano not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
David on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Cauan Barros not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Paulo Henrique not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 69% available)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Athletico PR

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.31
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.04
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.04
Kevin Viveros not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists)
GastĂłn BenavĂ­dez not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
Lucas Esquivel not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Dudu on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 36% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Vasco da Gama with Claudio Spinelli: 6.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Vasco da Gama: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Athletico PR with GastĂłn BenavĂ­dez: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Athletico PR: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

33%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Only 37% of Athletico PR's usual goal threat is available, missing key players like Kevin Viveros (8 goals/1 assist), GastĂłn BenavĂ­dez (0 goals/4 assists), Lucas Esquivel (1 goal/3 assists), and Dudu (1 goal/1 assist)
  • Vasco da Gama averages 1.38 goals per game at home, while Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 37% probability for a Vasco da Gama home win and a 33% probability for a draw
Risk Factors
  • Only 69% of Vasco da Gama's usual starting lineup strength is available, missing key players like Cuiabano (2 goals/3 assists), David (2 goals/2 assists), Cauan Barros (3 goals/0 assists), and Paulo Henrique (0 goals/2 assists)
  • Vasco da Gama's current goal production is stagnating, with an average of 1.2 goals recently compared to the season average of 1.4 goals
Overview

Vasco da Gama (14th place, 17 points) host Athletico PR (5th place, 23 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on May 11, 2026, 12:30 AM

Athletico PR is in a Europa-Cup spot, while Vasco da Gama is fighting against relegation

Form

Vasco da Gama has a form of L-D-W-L-D across all competitions (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches

The last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Flamengo

Athletico PR shows a form of L-W-L-W-D across all competitions

This includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games

The last match ended in a 0-0 draw against GrĂȘmio

Vasco da Gama's goal production is stagnating (averaging 1.2 goals), while the season average is 1.4 goals

Athletico PR consistently scores (averaging 1.5 goals per game)

Statistics

Vasco da Gama has scored an average of 1.43 goals per game this season and conceded 1.5 goals

The team has kept 0 clean sheets

In home games, Vasco da Gama scored an average of 1.38 goals and conceded 1.12 goals

Athletico PR has scored an average of 1.43 goals per game this season and conceded 1.07 goals

Athletico PR has kept 4 clean sheets

In away games, Athletico PR scored an average of 1.25 goals and conceded 2.5 goals

Vasco da Gama has seen both teams score in 12 games and over 2.5 goals in 9 games

Athletico PR has seen both teams score in 7 games and over 2.5 goals in 7 games

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches, the record is even

Both teams have secured one win each, with no draws

Vasco da Gama and Athletico PR have each scored 2 goals

Vasco da Gama won the last encounter 2-1 on August 27, 2024

Key Players

For Vasco da Gama, José Luis Rodríguez (2 goals, 3 assists) with rising form, Andrés Gómez (2 goals, 2 assists) with stable form, and Thiago Mendes (2 goals, 1 assist) with stable form are key players

For Athletico PR, Stiven Mendoza (4 goals, 0 assists) with stable form, Luiz Gustavo (2 goals, 0 assists) with declining form, and JoĂŁo Cruz (0 goals, 2 assists) with rising form are noteworthy

Goalkeepers

LĂ©o Jardim is the goalkeeper for Vasco da Gama and has 0 clean sheets this season

Santos is the goalkeeper for Athletico PR and has achieved 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Vasco da Gama scored an average of 1.38 goals and conceded 1.12 goals in home matches

Athletico PR scored an average of 1.25 goals and conceded 2.5 goals in away matches

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