Serie A
Botafogo - Corinthians
05/17/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
1.9
0.8
0:0
17%1:0
15%1:1
15%2:0
10%0:1
10%What influences the xG?
Botafogo
Corinthians
The Lab
- 1Botafogo: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Botafogo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Botafogo with Allan: 4.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Botafogo: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Corinthians with Matheuzinho: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
34%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
58%
Under 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
30%
Under 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
13%
Under 3.5
87%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 43% and a double chance of 77% for Botafogo or draw
- Botafogo shows a strong home offense with an average of 2.0 goals per home game, while Corinthians averages 0.83 goals scored away and 1.17 goals conceded
- Botafogo dominates head-to-head encounters with 2 wins and 2 draws in 4 matches
Risk Factors
- Limited squad strength for Botafogo, as only 61% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, with Danilo (7G/2A), Edenilson (3G/2A), Matheus Martins (4G/0A), and Vitinho (0G/2A) not in the lineup
Overview
Botafogo (14th place, 18 points) hosts Corinthians (16th place, 18 points) in a Serie A match. The game takes place on May 17, 2026, 8:00 PM. Both teams are close in the table and are striving to improve their standing.
Form
Botafogo's form across all competitions: DWDLD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). Botafogo recently drew 1-1 against Atlético Mineiro. Corinthians' form across all competitions: DDWLW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Corinthians recently won 3-2 against São Paulo. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Botafogo averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.93 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded. The team kept 1 clean sheet, both teams scored in 11 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 12 games. Corinthians averages 0.87 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game this season. Away, they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded. The team kept 6 clean sheets, both teams scored in 7 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 games.
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Botafogo secured 2 wins and 2 draws, while Corinthians recorded no wins. Botafogo scored a total of 6 goals, compared to Corinthians' 4 goals. The last encounter on November 30, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw. Botafogo has shown recent dominance in these matchups.
Key Players
For Botafogo, key players include Arthur Cabral (4 goals, 1 assist), Alex Telles (2 goals, 2 assists), and Alexander Barboza (1 goal, 2 assists). Arthur Cabral shows stable form, while Alex Telles and Alexander Barboza are in rising form. For Corinthians, Matheus Bidu (2 goals, 1 assist), Breno Bidon (2 goals), and Rodrigo Garro (1 goal, 6 assists) are crucial. All three show a stable form trend.
Goalkeepers
Botafogo's goalkeeper Neto made 7 season appearances with an average rating of 6.91 and recorded 1 clean sheet. Corinthians' goalkeeper Hugo Souza made 13 season appearances with an average rating of 6.82 and recorded 6 clean sheets.
Influences
Botafogo showed a stronger offense in home games with an average of 2.0 goals scored and conceded 1.83 goals. Corinthians scored an average of 0.83 goals away and conceded 1.17 goals.