Serie A
Palmeiras - Cruzeiro
05/17/2026, 12:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.1
0.8
1:1
14%1:0
14%0:0
14%2:0
10%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Palmeiras
Cruzeiro
The Lab
- 1Palmeiras: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2Cruzeiro with Bruno Rodrigues: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Palmeiras with Felipe Anderson: 3.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Cruzeiro: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
32%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Palmeiras' strong league position (1st place) and solid home record (1.75 home goals, 0.62 home goals conceded)
- The mathematical model predicts a home win for Palmeiras with a 46% probability
- Cruzeiro's defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Palmeiras' goal production has recently slowed down (currently 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.8)
- Cruzeiro shows a positive trend in goal scoring (currently 1.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.4)
- Several players from both teams are absent due to injuries or suspensions
Overview
Palmeiras (1st place, 34 points) host Cruzeiro (11th place, 19 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 17, 2026, 12:00 AM. Palmeiras aims to solidify their league lead, while Cruzeiro seeks crucial points in the mid-table.
Form
Palmeiras has shown a form of DWWDD in their last five games (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses). They recently recorded two consecutive draws. Cruzeiro displays a form of WWWLW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). Their last match was a win against Bahia, preceded by a loss against Atlético Mineiro. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Palmeiras averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they score 1.75 goals per game and concede 0.62. The team kept 5 clean sheets. Cruzeiro averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Cruzeiro concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game. Both teams scored in 10 of Palmeiras' matches and 9 of Cruzeiro's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of Palmeiras' matches and 10 of Cruzeiro's.
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras has secured 2 wins, while Cruzeiro has won 1 time, with 1 draw. The goal difference stands at 5:4 in favor of Palmeiras. The last encounter on October 26, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw. Palmeiras has been dominant at home in recent matchups.
Key Players
For Palmeiras, key players include Andreas Pereira (1 goal, 10 assists, Avg Rating 7.34), José Manuel López (5 goals, 3 assists, Avg Rating 7.08), and Gustavo Gómez (3 goals, Avg Rating 7.00). For Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg Rating 7.34), Christian (5 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 6.99), and Keny Arroyo (1 goal, 2 assists, Avg Rating 6.91) stand out, with Keny Arroyo showing rising form.
Goalkeepers
Palmeiras' goalkeeper Carlos Miguel has made 15 appearances this season, keeping 5 clean sheets. Cruzeiro's goalkeeper OtĂĄvio Costa has played in 2 matches, while the team recorded a total of 4 clean sheets.
Influences
Palmeiras benefits from their home advantage, averaging 1.75 home goals scored and conceding only 0.62 home goals. Cruzeiro appears vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game. No data on weather or specific venue history is available.