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Serie A

Chapecoense - Remo

05/17/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Chapecoense
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Remo
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
CHAREM

Chapecoense

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.08
Yannick Bolasie not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Remo

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.69
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.01
G. Pereira Taliari not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chapecoense with João Vitor: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Remo with Matheus Alexandre: 4.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Chapecoense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

31%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical prediction: Chapecoense has the highest win probability at 40%
  • Remo's weak away defense: Remo concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game
  • Chapecoense's poor form: The team has remained winless in their last 5 games (4 losses, 1 draw)
Risk Factors
  • Chapecoense's declining goal production: recently 0.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.08 goals
  • Chapecoense's low shots on target: averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • High draw probability: The mathematical model predicts a draw probability of 31%
Overview

Chapecoense (20th place, 9 points) host Remo (19th place, 12 points) in a Serie A bottom-of-the-table clash. The match is on May 17, 2026, 11:30 PM. Both teams are in the relegation zone and desperately need points.

Form

Chapecoense is in poor form with LLLLD in their last five games, including four losses and one draw. Their last match ended in a draw. Remo shows slightly better form with DLLWD, which includes one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Remo also drew their last game.

Statistics

Chapecoense scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 1.93 goals. At home, they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.55 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 9 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 games. Remo scores an average of 1.07 goals per game and concedes 1.67 goals. Away from home, they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.29 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 8 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 games.

Head-to-Head

No data is available for head-to-head matches between Chapecoense and Remo.

Key Players

For Chapecoense, Ênio (Attacker, 1 goal, average rating 7.3), Neto Pessoa (Attacker, 1 goal, average rating 6.74), and Marcinho (Attacker, 1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games, average rating 6.67) are key. For Remo, Alef Manga (Attacker, 4 goals, 3 assists, average rating 6.97), Vitor Bueno (Midfielder, 2 goals, 1 assist, average rating 7.08), and Jajá (Attacker, 2 goals, 1 assist, average rating 6.72) stand out.

Goalkeepers

Chapecoense's goalkeeper Anderson has one clean sheet this season. Remo's goalkeeper Marcelo Rangel also achieved one clean sheet this season.

Influences

Chapecoense shows a slightly improved defense at home, conceding an average of 1.55 goals. Remo, on the other hand, has a defensive weakness away from home, conceding an average of 2.29 goals per away game.

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