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Serie A

Bahia - Grêmio

05/17/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Bahia
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Grêmio
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BAHGRÊ

Bahia

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.49
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.26
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 17, 11 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Jean Lucas on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Cristian Olivera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

Grêmio

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.32
Attack weakness (0.53x league average)
-0.30
Declining form (0.3 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 6, 11 places gap)
-0.10
Francis Amuzu on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Gustavo Martins on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Juan Nardoni not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Grêmio with Viery: 0.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Bahia: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Bahia with Michel Araújo: 5.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2.2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Bahia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Grêmio: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

31%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Favorites: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Bahia with 47%
  • Home Advantage vs. Away Weakness: Bahia with stable home form, while Grêmio concedes an average of 2.75 goals per away game
  • Head-to-Head Dominance: Bahia has won 3 out of 4 direct duels against Grêmio, with a goal aggregate of 7:1
Risk Factors
  • Grêmio's Lack of Shots: Grêmio averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Grêmio's Away Defense: Grêmio concedes an average of 2.75 goals per away game
Overview

Bahia (6th place, 22 points) hosts Grêmio (17th place, 17 points) in a Serie A match in the Campeonato Brasileiro

The game is scheduled for May 17, 2026, 8:00 PM

Bahia aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table, while Grêmio battles to escape the relegation zone

Form

Bahia's recent form in all competitions is WLDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Grêmio's recent form in all competitions is DLWDL

This includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Both teams show similar current form with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games respectively

Statistics

Bahia averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game this season

At home, Bahia scores an average of 1.38 goals and concedes 1 goal per game

Grêmio averages 1 goal scored and 1.13 goals conceded per game this season

Grêmio scores 1 goal and concedes 2.75 goals per away game

Bahia has kept 4 clean sheets this season, Grêmio 5

Both teams scored in 9 of Bahia's matches and 7 of Grêmio's matches

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of Bahia's matches and 5 of Grêmio's matches

Head-to-Head

In 4 direct duels, Bahia has won 3 times, Grêmio once

There have been 0 draws

Bahia scored a total of 7 goals, Grêmio 1 goal

The last match on October 19, 2025, ended in a 4:0 home win for Bahia

Bahia has been the more dominant team in recent encounters

Key Players

For Bahia, Luciano Juba (7 goals, 1 assist) and Willian José (3 goals, 1 assist) are key attackers

Everton Ribeiro has contributed 3 assists this season

Jean Lucas (2 goals/2 assists) and Cristian Olivera (1 goal/1 assist) are not nominated

For Grêmio, Carlos Vinícius is the main goal threat with 7 goals this season

José Enamorado has provided 2 assists, Erick Noriega 1 goal and 1 assist

Francis Amuzu (1 goal/2 assists), Gustavo Martins (0 goals/2 assists), and Juan Nardoni (1 goal/1 assist) are not nominated

Goalkeepers

Bahia's goalkeeper Léo Vieira has a season average rating of 7.36

Bahia has achieved 4 clean sheets this season

Grêmio's goalkeeper Weverton has a season average rating of 7.04 and shows a rising form trend

Grêmio has kept 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Bahia's home performance shows they score an average of 1.38 goals and concede 1 goal per game

Grêmio's away performance is challenging, with an average of 1 goal scored and 2.75 goals conceded per away game

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