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Serie A

Internacional - Vasco da Gama

05/16/2026, 09:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Internacional
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Vasco da Gama
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
INTVDG

Internacional

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.40
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.28
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Vasco da Gama

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.30
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap)
+0.03
Cuiabano not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Thiago Mendes  not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
David on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Paulo Henrique not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Internacional with Matheus Bahia: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Internacional: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Vasco da Gama with Hugo Moura: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

32%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability (68%) for a home win or a draw
  • Internacional shows a positive form trend, scoring more frequently recently (1.8) than their season average (1.1)
  • Recent head-to-head matches favor Vasco da Gama, who last won 5:1 and have an overall goal difference of 8:4
Risk Factors
  • Vasco da Gama concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Vasco da Gama's goal production has recently slowed (1.2) compared to their season average (1.4)
  • The model predicts only a 47% chance for both teams to score
Overview

Internacional (14th place, 18 points) host Vasco da Gama (8th place, 20 points)

Serie A match on May 16, 2026, 6:30 PM

Internacional is in the lower half of the table

Vasco da Gama is in the upper mid-table

Form

Internacional's form across all competitions is "DLDWD"

This corresponds to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

Vasco da Gama's form across all competitions is "DWLDW"

This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Internacional averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded in home games

Vasco da Gama averaged 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded in away games

Internacional recorded 8 matches this season where both teams scored

Vasco da Gama had 12 matches where both teams scored

Internacional played over 2.5 goals 5 times, while Vasco da Gama played over 2.5 goals 9 times

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Internacional secured 1 win and Vasco da Gama had 2 wins

One match ended in a draw

The goal difference of 4:8 favors Vasco da Gama

The last encounter on November 28, 2025, ended with a 5:1 victory for Vasco da Gama

The away team has been dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

Alerrandro (Internacional): 2 season goals, 2 assists, 1 goal and 2 assists in last 5 games

Johan Carbonero (Internacional): 2 season goals, 1 assist, 1 goal in last 5 games

Alexandro Bernabei (Internacional): 3 season goals, 2 goals in last 5 games

José Luis Rodríguez (Vasco da Gama): 2 season goals, 4 assists, 1 goal and 2 assists in last 5 games

Andrés Gómez (Vasco da Gama): 2 season goals, 2 assists, 2 goals in last 5 games

Robert Renan (Vasco da Gama): 1 season goal, 1 goal in last 5 games

Not nominated: Cuiabano (2 goals/3 assists), Thiago Mendes (3 goals/1 assist), David (2 goals/2 assists), Paulo Henrique (0 goals/2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Sergio Rochet is Internacional's goalkeeper with 11 appearances and 4 clean sheets

LĂ©o Jardim is Vasco da Gama's goalkeeper with 15 appearances and 1 clean sheet

Influences

Internacional averaged 1.0 goals scored at home

Internacional's home defense conceded an average of 1.14 goals

Vasco da Gama averaged 1.5 goals scored away

Vasco da Gama's away defense conceded an average of 2.0 goals

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