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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol

05/16/2026, 09:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético Mineiro
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Mirassol
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
AMMIR

Atlético Mineiro

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-0.69
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.12
Victor Hugo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)

Mirassol

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Igor Formiga not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Shaylon on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético Mineiro with Tomás Pérez: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Mirassol: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Mirassol with Denilson: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

31%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a slight away favorite role for Mirassol with a 36% win probability
  • Atlético Mineiro shows a declining trend in goal production (recent avg 0.8 goals vs. season avg 1.2 goals)
  • Atlético Mineiro averages more shots on target (5.4) than Mirassol (4.0)
Risk Factors
  • Mirassol concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away game
  • Mirassol has not kept a single clean sheet this season
Overview

Atlético Mineiro (13th place, 18 points) host Mirassol (18th place, 13 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on May 16, 2026, 6:30 PM

Atlético Mineiro aims to distance themselves from the lower mid-table, while Mirassol urgently needs points in the relegation battle

Form

Atlético Mineiro shows a form of LLLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last 5 matches

This equates to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Mirassol's form in their last 5 matches is LWLWD

This consists of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Statistics

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.2 goals per game and concedes 1.4 goals

Mirassol scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.43 goals per match

Atlético Mineiro kept 3 clean sheets, while Mirassol had none

Both teams scored in 6 of Atlético Mineiro's games and in 9 of Mirassol's games

Away from home, Mirassol concedes an average of 1.8 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches, Atlético Mineiro won 1 time, Mirassol 0 times, and there was 1 draw

The goal difference is 3:2 in favor of Atlético Mineiro

The last encounter was won by Atlético Mineiro at home with 1:0 on September 28, 2025

Key Players

For Atlético Mineiro, Mateo Cassierra (2 goals, 1 assist, rising form trend) and Tomás Cuello (2 goals, 1 assist, stable form) are important offensive players

Defender Renan Lodi contributed 2 assists and shows stable form

For Mirassol, Alesson is a key player with 4 assists and a rising form trend

Carlos Eduardo (1 goal, 1 assist, rising form trend) and Eduardo (2 goals, stable form) are also significant

Goalkeepers

Everson, the goalkeeper for Atlético Mineiro, played 15 season games and kept 3 clean sheets

Walter, the goalkeeper for Mirassol, played 14 matches and has not kept a clean sheet this season

Influences

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.25 goals at home and concedes 1.38 goals

Mirassol scores 1.2 goals away and concedes an average of 1.8 goals

There is no specific data on stadium history or weather conditions

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