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Serie A

Bragantino - Vitória

05/17/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Bragantino
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Vitória
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:0

13%

2:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BRAVIT

Bragantino

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.35
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.08
Full strength squad available

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.60
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.43
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.13
Renato Kayzer not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Ramon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória with Caíque Gonçalves: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Bragantino with Matheus Fernandes: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Vitória: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Bragantino with 55% probability and 1.60 predicted goals
  • Bragantino's home defense is solid with an average of 0.8 goals conceded, while Vitória concedes 3.4 goals per away game
  • Both teams show a positive trend in recent scoring, Bragantino recently averaged 1.4 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Vitória concedes an average of 3.4 goals per away game
Overview

Bragantino (9th place, 20 points) host Vitória (13th place, 19 points) in Serie A

Match on May 17, 2026, 10:30 PM

Both teams are separated by just one point

A win could move the hosts closer to the top half of the table

Vitória could overtake their opponent with an away victory

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 55% probability

A draw is calculated at 28% and an away win at 18%

Form

Bragantino's last five games show a form of LWLWL

This translates to 2 wins and 3 losses

Vitória's last five games show a form of WDLWD

This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Bragantino is currently scoring more frequently (1.4) than their season average (1.1)

Vitória is also currently scoring more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.4)

Statistics

Bragantino averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per game

Vitória averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded per game

Bragantino kept 4 clean sheets, while Vitória achieved 5 clean sheets

Bragantino had both teams scoring in 7 games

Vitória also had both teams scoring in 7 games

Bragantino scored 1.1 goals per home game and conceded 0.8 goals

Vitória scored 1.2 goals per away game but conceded an average of 3.4 goals

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Bragantino and Vitória each secured 2 wins

There were no draws in these encounters

Bragantino scored a total of 6 goals, while Vitória scored 3 goals

Bragantino won the last duel 4:0 on December 3, 2025

The recent record between the teams is even

Key Players

Isidro Pitta is a key offensive player for Bragantino with 4 season goals and 1 assist, showing 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.35

Lucas Barbosa contributed 3 season goals and 1 assist, with 1 goal in his last 5 games

Juninho Capixaba, a defender, scored 2 season goals and provided 2 assists

For Vitória, Renê stands out with 3 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 3 goals and providing 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.26

Erick is another important player with 2 season goals and 3 assists, showing 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Baralhas has contributed 2 season goals and 3 assists, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Tiago Volpi is Bragantino's goalkeeper, and Lucas Arcanjo is Vitória's

Bragantino has recorded 4 clean sheets this season

Vitória kept a clean sheet in 5 matches

Lucas Arcanjo shows stable form in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.08

Influences

Bragantino scored an average of 1.1 goals at home and conceded 0.8 goals

Vitória scored 1.2 goals away and conceded 3.4 goals on average

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