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Serie A

Athletico PR - Flamengo

05/17/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Athletico PR
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Flamengo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
APFLA

Athletico PR

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.42
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
João Cruz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Luiz Gustavo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Flamengo

Attack strength (1.37x league average)
-0.48
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.24
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.08
Gonzalo Plata not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Giorgian de Arrascaeta not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Jorginho not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Athletico PR with Lucas Esquivel: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Flamengo with Bruno Henrique : 10.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Flamengo: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 5
    Athletico PR: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Athletico PR's strong home defense, conceding an average of only 0.45 goals per home game, supports the prediction of a home win.
  • Athletico PR can rely on the full strength of its starting XI (100% active goal share), while Flamengo's active goal share is reduced to 89% due to key player absences.
  • Athletico PR's offensive presence, with an average of 5.6 shots on target in their last five games, is a significant factor.
Risk Factors
  • Flamengo shows a strong offensive performance with an average of 2.00 goals per away game this season.
  • In head-to-head encounters, Flamengo has been recently dominant, winning the last match away with a score of 1-0.
  • Athletico PR's goal production is stagnant, averaging 1.3 goals in recent form, which is below their season average of 1.4.
Overview

Athletico PR (5th place, 23 points) host Flamengo (2nd place, 30 points) in a Serie A match. The game is scheduled for May 17, 2026, 11:30 PM. Athletico PR aims to climb the table, while Flamengo seeks to maintain its position near the top. The mathematical analysis projects a home win for Athletico PR with a 47% probability.

Form

Athletico PR's form in their last five matches is WLWDL, which translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last game resulted in a 0-1 away loss against Vasco da Gama. Flamengo is in excellent form with WWWDW in their last five outings, comprising 4 wins and 1 draw. Flamengo won their last match 1-0 away against Grêmio. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Athletico PR scores an average of 1.33 goals per game and concedes 1.07 goals. At home, they average 1.36 goals scored and only 0.45 goals conceded. Flamengo is more potent offensively, averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Flamengo scores an average of 2.00 goals and concedes 1.14 goals. Both teams scored in 7 of Athletico PR's 15 matches and in 7 of Flamengo's 14 matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of Athletico PR's 15 matches and in 9 of Flamengo's 14 matches. The mathematical model predicts 1.41 goals for Athletico PR and 0.92 goals for Flamengo.

Head-to-Head

In 2 previous head-to-head encounters, Athletico PR has 0 wins, Flamengo has 1 win, and there has been 1 draw. The goal difference stands at 1:2 in favor of Flamengo. The last match between these two teams was on September 29, 2024, which Flamengo won 1-0 away.

Key Players

For Athletico PR, key players include Kevin Viveros (8 goals, 1 assist), Stiven Mendoza (4 goals), and Lucas Esquivel (3 assists). Kevin Viveros shows stable form with 3 goals in his last 5 games. Stiven Mendoza's form is rising with 1 goal in his last 5 games. For Flamengo, Pedro (8 goals, 3 assists), Samuel Lino (5 assists), and Lucas Paquetá (3 goals) stand out. Pedro is in strong rising form with 5 goals in his last 5 games. Samuel Lino is also in rising form with 4 assists in his last 5 games. Lucas Paquetá has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games and his form is rising.

Goalkeepers

Athletico PR's goalkeeper Santos has recorded 4 clean sheets in 15 seasonal appearances. Flamengo's goalkeeper Agustín Rossi has 6 clean sheets in 14 seasonal appearances.

Influences

Athletico PR demonstrates a strong home defense, conceding only 0.45 goals per home game on average. Home advantage could play a significant role.

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