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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - Bragantino

05/24/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Vasco da Gama
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Bragantino
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
VDGBRA

Vasco da Gama

Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
José Luis Rodríguez on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
David on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Brenner on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Paulo Henrique not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 62% available)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Bragantino

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.12
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap)
+0.05
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.00
Lucas Barbosa on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Vasco da Gama with Claudio Spinelli: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Vasco da Gama: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Bragantino with Fernando : 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.6 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

29%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Vasco da Gama is slightly favored with a 40% win probability according to the mathematical analysis
  • Bragantino's offense shows a positive trend, currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals)
  • Vasco da Gama's strong home defense (avg. 1.0 goals conceded) meets Bragantino's weak away defense (avg. 2.0 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
  • Vasco da Gama is missing key players, with only 63% of their usual starting eleven's goal threat available
  • Bragantino concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Vasco da Gama's goal production is declining, recently 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.4 goals
Overview

Vasco da Gama (15th place, 20 points) host Bragantino (6th place, 23 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on May 25, 2026, 12:30 AM

Vasco da Gama is fighting to move away from the bottom of the table

Bragantino is aiming for a better position in the upper half of the table

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Vasco da Gama (Form: WLDWL) recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Their last match ended in a loss

Bragantino (Form: WLWLW) achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Their last match ended in a win

Statistics

Vasco da Gama scores an average of 1.38 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals

In home games, the average is 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded

Bragantino scores an average of 1.19 goals and concedes 1.13 goals

Away, they average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded

Vasco da Gama kept 1 clean sheet, Bragantino kept 5 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 13 of Vasco da Gama's 16 games

Both teams scored in 7 of Bragantino's 16 games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 10 of Vasco da Gama's 16 games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 of Bragantino's 16 games

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between these teams

Vasco da Gama won 1 match, Bragantino won 2, and 1 game ended in a draw

The goal difference is balanced with 6 goals for each side

The last encounter on October 26, 2025, saw Vasco da Gama secure a 3-0 away win against Bragantino

Key Players

Vasco da Gama:

Andrés Gómez (Attacker) scored 3 goals and 2 assists in 15 season appearances with an average rating of 6.95

In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals with no assists, with an average rating of 6.90

Thiago Mendes (Midfielder) recorded 3 goals and 1 assist in 14 season appearances with an average rating of 7.26

In the last 5 games, he contributed 1 goal and 1 assist, with an average rating of 7.31

Robert Renan (Defender) scored 1 goal in 16 season appearances, with an average rating of 6.91

His form shows a positive trend with an average rating of 7.33 in the last 5 games and 1 goal

Bragantino:

Isidro Pitta (Attacker) scored 4 times and provided 1 assist in 15 season appearances, with an average rating of 6.85

His form is rising, with 3 goals in the last 5 games and an average rating of 7.40

Gabriel (Midfielder) scored 2 goals in 14 season appearances, with an average rating of 6.79

In the last 5 games, he contributed 1 goal and achieved an average rating of 6.90

Juninho Capixaba (Defender) recorded 2 goals and 2 assists in 14 season appearances with an average rating of 7.14

His form is declining, with no goals or assists in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 6.90

Goalkeepers

Vasco da Gama's goalkeeper LĂ©o Jardim played in 16 matches and kept 1 clean sheet

Bragantino's goalkeeper Tiago Volpi played in 9 matches, scored 1 season goal and kept 5 clean sheets

Influences

Vasco da Gama shows a balanced performance at home with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded

Bragantino concedes an average of 2.0 goals away and scores an average of 1.2 goals

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