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Vasco da Gama – Bragantino0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Vasco da Gama
1.44
Total xG
2.68
Bragantino
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vasco da Gama | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.00 | |
| José Luis Rodríguez on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| David on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Brenner on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Paulo Henrique not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Lucas Barbosa on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Vasco da Gama is slightly favored with a 40% win probability according to the mathematical analysis
- Bragantino's offense shows a positive trend, currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals)
- Vasco da Gama's strong home defense (avg. 1.0 goals conceded) meets Bragantino's weak away defense (avg. 2.0 goals conceded)
Risks
- Vasco da Gama is missing key players, with only 63% of their usual starting eleven's goal threat available
- Bragantino concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Vasco da Gama's goal production is declining, recently 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.4 goals
All probabilities
Result
Vasco da Gama40%
Draw29%
Bragantino31%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
Vasco da Gama or draw69%
Bragantino or draw60%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
5%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vasco da Gama: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- Vasco da Gama with Claudio Spinelli: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Vasco da Gama: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Bragantino with Fernando : 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.6 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
Lineups
Vasco da Gama 4-2-3-1 · Bragantino 4-2-3-1
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 60 J. Silva
- 4 A. Saldivia Vázquez
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 88 C. Barros da Luz
- 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 10 J. Rojas Echavarría
- 11 A. Gomez
- 77 C. Spinelli
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 32 J. Herrera
- 20 R. Huendra Almeida Mendonça
- 30 H. Mosquera Sánchez
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
Substitutes
- 66 L. Soares da Silva
- 20 B. Souza da Silva
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 17 N. Rocha Moreira
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 25 H. Moura Arruda da Silva
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 64 W. Fernandes Alves Falcão
- 82 R. Avellar da Silva Fortes
- 72 B. Lopes Ferreira
- 86 L. Zuccarello
- 57 M. Braz da Silva
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 8 E. Colcenti Antunes
- 15 I. Sosa Ospital
- 12 V. Barbosa da Silva
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 22 G. Ribeiro Neves
- 28 Y. Silva Leles de Souza
- 46 B. d. M. Souza
- 54 Weimar Enrique Vivas Palacios
- 59 F. Rios Rodrigues
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