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Flamengo – Palmeiras0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Flamengo
1.24
Total xG
2.18
Palmeiras
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Flamengo | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.69 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Gonzalo Plata on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ramón Sosa not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: Flamengo favored with a home win probability of 42%
- Flamengo's strong offensive power at home (avg. 1.86 goals per game)
- Palmeiras' stagnating goal production in the last 5 games (avg. 1.0 goals) compared to their season average of 1.7 goals
Risks
- Palmeiras averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The pipeline analysis predicts a draw with a probability of 32%
All probabilities
Result
Flamengo42%
Draw32%
Palmeiras26%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Double chance
Flamengo or draw74%
Palmeiras or draw58%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo with Gonzalo Plata: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Palmeiras with Felipe Anderson: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Flamengo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Flamengo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Flamengo: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
Lineups
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · Palmeiras 4-2-3-1
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 26 A. Lobo Silva
- 52 E. Fernandes Araújo
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 20 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 4 A. Giay
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 40 A. Andrade Elias
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 42 J. López
Substitutes
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 18 D. De La Cruz Arcosa
- 64 W. de Souza Barreto
- 8 S. Ñíguez
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 27 B. Pinto
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 6 J. da Silva Dias
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 37 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 10 P. Sampaio Filho
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 31 L. Sousa Santos
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
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