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Serie A

Flamengo - Palmeiras

05/24/2026, 12:00 AM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Flamengo
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Palmeiras
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
FLAPAL

Flamengo

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.69
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.04
Gonzalo Plata on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Palmeiras

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.23
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.22
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Ramón Sosa not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo with Gonzalo Plata: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Palmeiras with Felipe Anderson: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Flamengo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Flamengo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Flamengo: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

32%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Flamengo favored with a home win probability of 42%
  • Flamengo's strong offensive power at home (avg. 1.86 goals per game)
  • Palmeiras' stagnating goal production in the last 5 games (avg. 1.0 goals) compared to their season average of 1.7 goals
Risk Factors
  • Palmeiras averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • The pipeline analysis predicts a draw with a probability of 32%
Overview

Flamengo (2nd place, 31 points) host Palmeiras (1st place, 35 points) in Serie A

Top of the table clash on May 24, 2026, 1:00 AM

Flamengo aims to close the gap to the league leaders

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Flamengo shows very good form across all competitions with WWDWD

The home team secured 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games and is unbeaten

The last match ended in a draw (1-1 away against Athletico PR)

Palmeiras also has an unbeaten streak in their last 5 games (WWDDD)

The away team recorded 2 wins and 3 draws

Palmeiras last drew 1-1 at home against Cruzeiro

Statistics

Flamengo shows strong season performance with an average of 1.87 goals scored per game and only 0.87 goals conceded

At home, Flamengo is particularly defensively strong, conceding only 0.57 goals per home game

Flamengo kept 6 clean sheets in 15 season matches

Both teams scored in 8 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 9 games

Palmeiras also has a solid season with 1.63 goals scored per game and 0.81 goals conceded

Away from home, Palmeiras averages 1.57 goals scored and concedes 1.0 goal per game

Palmeiras recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Both teams scored in 11 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 games

Head-to-Head

In 4 direct encounters over the last two years, Flamengo won 2 matches

Palmeiras did not secure any wins in this period, with 2 draws recorded

Flamengo scored 6 goals in these matches, while Palmeiras scored 3 goals

Flamengo won the last meeting on October 19, 2025, with a 3-2 score

Flamengo has been the dominant team in recent head-to-head clashes

Key Players

Flamengo's key players are Pedro, Samuel Lino, and Lucas Paquetá

Pedro, an attacker, scored 9 goals and provided 3 assists this season and shows rising form with 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games (rating 7.55)

Samuel Lino, also an attacker, delivered 2 goals and 5 assists this season, with 2 assists in the last 5 games (rating 6.89)

Lucas Paquetá, a midfielder, contributed 3 goals and 0 assists, with 2 goals in the last 5 games in stable form (rating 7.24)

For Palmeiras, José Manuel López, Andreas Pereira, and Allan are important

José Manuel López, an attacker, scored 5 goals and 3 assists this season and 2 goals in the last 5 games (rating 6.81)

Andreas Pereira, a midfielder, is an important playmaker with 1 goal and 10 assists, with 1 assist in the last 5 games (rating 6.94)

Allan, an attacker, has 3 goals and 1 assist this season and 1 assist in the last 5 games (rating 7.06)

Goalkeepers

Flamengo's goalkeeper Agustín Rossi made 15 appearances with an average rating of 7.05

He achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Palmeiras' goalkeeper Carlos Miguel played 16 games with an average rating of 7.04

He kept 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Flamengo shows strong home performance with an average of 1.86 home goals scored and only 0.57 goals conceded

Palmeiras scores an average of 1.57 goals and concedes 1.0 goal per away game

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