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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Chapecoense

05/24/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Cruzeiro
1.8
Total xG
2.6
Chapecoense
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
CRUCHA

Cruzeiro

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.31
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.17
Christian on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Keny Arroyo not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 72% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)

Chapecoense

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+1.03
Attack weakness (0.44x league average)
-0.79
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.45
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruzeiro with Bruno Rodrigues: 5.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Chapecoense with Neto Pessoa: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Cruzeiro: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Chapecoense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

25%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Cruzeiro with 60%
  • Away defense: Chapecoense concedes an average of 3.33 goals per away game
  • Form trend: Cruzeiro is in better form in their last 5 games with 3 wins compared to Chapecoense (0 wins)
Risk Factors
  • Cruzeiro's defense: The home team concedes an average of 1.63 goals per game in the season
  • Absences: For Cruzeiro, Christian (5G/2A) is not nominated and Keny Arroyo (2G/2A) is suspended, reducing the usual goal threat to 73%
Overview

Cruzeiro (15th place, 20 points) hosts Chapecoense (20th place, 9 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 24, 2026, 8:00 PM. Cruzeiro is trying to move away from the relegation zone, while Chapecoense is at the bottom of the table fighting to catch up

Form

Cruzeiro shows good form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games (Form: WWLWD). Their most recent result was a 1-1 away draw against Palmeiras. Chapecoense is in a crisis, failing to secure a win in their last 5 matches, with 1 draw and 4 losses (Form: LLLDL). Their last game ended in a 2-3 home defeat against Remo. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cruzeiro averages 1.31 goals scored and 1.63 goals conceded per season. At home, they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. The team kept 4 clean sheets in total. For Cruzeiro, over 2.5 goals were scored in 10 matches and both teams scored in 10 matches. Chapecoense averages 1.07 goals per game and concedes 2.0 goals. Away, they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.33 goals conceded per game. Chapecoense managed only 1 clean sheet this season

Key Players

For Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira (2 goals, 2 assists) with stable form, Lucas Romero (1 goal, 3 assists) also stable, and Kaio Jorge (3 goals, 0 assists), who scored 1 goal in 5 games, are crucial. Chapecoense's key players are Ênio (1 goal, 0 assists) with stable form, Bruno Pacheco (0 goals, 2 assists), and Marcinho (1 goal, 1 assist), who is also in stable form

Goalkeepers

Cruzeiro's goalkeeper Otávio Costa made 3 appearances with an average rating of 6.35. The team achieved a total of 4 clean sheets, with 3 at home. Chapecoense's goalkeeper Anderson played in 4 games with an average rating of 6.95. Chapecoense has recorded 1 clean sheet this season, none of which were away

Influences

Cruzeiro has a better goal difference at home (1.3 goals scored vs. 1.0 goals conceded) compared to Chapecoense's away record (1.0 goals scored vs. 3.33 goals conceded)

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