Match report →
Cruzeiro – Chapecoense2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Cruzeiro
1.79
Total xG
2.55
Chapecoense
0.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruzeiro | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +1.03 | |
| Attack weakness (0.44x league average) | −0.79 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | −0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Christian on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Keny Arroyo not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Cruzeiro with 60%
- Away defense: Chapecoense concedes an average of 3.33 goals per away game
- Form trend: Cruzeiro is in better form in their last 5 games with 3 wins compared to Chapecoense (0 wins)
Risks
- Cruzeiro's defense: The home team concedes an average of 1.63 goals per game in the season
- Absences: For Cruzeiro, Christian (5G/2A) is not nominated and Keny Arroyo (2G/2A) is suspended, reducing the usual goal threat to 73%
All probabilities
Result
Cruzeiro60%
Draw25%
Chapecoense14%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw86%
Chapecoense or draw40%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruzeiro with Bruno Rodrigues: 5.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Chapecoense with Neto Pessoa: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Cruzeiro: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Chapecoense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 · Chapecoense 3-4-3
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 6 K. da Silva
- 11 G. Santos da Silva
- 29 L. Romero
- 70 K. Takamura Correa
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 17 L. Sinisterra Lucumí
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 33 B. dos Santos Covas
- 4 J. Silveira dos Santos
- 26 E. Souza da Cruz
- 17 V. Balieiro Lourenco de Carvalho
- 99 R. dos Santos Cavalheira Natividade
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 97 Ênio
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
Substitutes
- 25 L. Villalba
- 91 F. da Costa Aragão
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 8 M. de Souza
- 31 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 22 N. Villareal
- 94 W. Maciel Sousa Campos
- 7 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 88 C. Alves Cardoso
- 2 M. da Silva Santos
- 22 H. Meritão
- 5 Vitor
- 20 J. Vicente
- 31 M. Garcez
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 1 R. de Carvalho Santos
- 18 A. Cordeiro Pessôa Neto
- 77 I. de Vargas da Rosa
- 35 Vinicius Eduardo
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