Serie A
Vitória - Internacional
05/23/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.1
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
11%0:1
11%2:1
7%What influences the xG?
Vitória
Internacional
The Lab
- 1Vitória with Luan Cândido: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Internacional with Matheus Bahia: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Internacional: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 4Vitória: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Vitória: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
33%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Home defensive strength: Vitória concedes an average of only 0.3 goals per home game
- Internacional's offensive form: Internacional recently showed strong attacking performance with an average of 6.4 shots on target and 2.2 goals
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with 34% for a home win, 33% for a draw, and 33% for an away win
Risk Factors
- Vitória averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The model predicts only a 45% chance of both teams scoring
- The model predicts only a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals
Overview
Vitória hosts Internacional in a Serie A match on May 23, 2026, 10:00 PM. Vitória sits in 14th place with 19 points, while Internacional is in 11th place with 21 points. The encounter is expected to be a close mid-table battle.
Form
Vitória's form across all competitions is DLWDL, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches. Their most recent result was a 0-2 loss against Bragantino. According to the analysis, Vitória is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 1.8 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.3 goals), indicating a positive form trend.
Internacional's form is LDWDW, consisting of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last game ended in a 4-1 victory over Vasco da Gama. Internacional is also currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 2.2 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.3 goals), which shows a positive form trend.
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Vitória averages 1.2 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.47 goals. Their home defensive strength is particularly notable: at home, the team averages 1.2 goals scored and concedes only 0.3 goals per game. They kept 5 clean sheets in home matches.
Internacional averages 1.25 goals scored and concedes 1.06 goals per match. Away from home, Internacional scores an average of 1.29 goals and concedes 1.14 goals per game. Internacional saw both teams score in 9 out of 16 games, while Vitória had this in 7 out of 15 games.
Head-to-Head
In the 4 previous head-to-head matches, there have been no draws. Vitória and Internacional each secured 2 wins. The goal difference stands at 4:5 in favor of Internacional. The last meeting on November 5, 2025, saw Vitória win 1-0 at home. The recent head-to-head record between these two teams is even.
Key Players
For Vitória, Renê is a key attacking player with 3 goals and 1 assist this season, contributing 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing a rising form trend. Erick contributed with 2 goals and 3 assists to the season's performance, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Baralhas recorded 2 goals and 3 assists this season, providing 1 assist in the last 5 matches.
For Internacional, Alexandro Bernabei stands out as a defender with 4 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Alerrandro also shows strong performance with 3 goals and 3 assists this season, including 2 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games with a rising form trend. Rafael Borré has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist this season, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games and an upward form curve.
Goalkeepers
Vitória's goalkeeper, Lucas Arcanjo, kept 5 clean sheets this season. Internacional's goalkeeper, Anthoni, recorded 0 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Vitória holds a home advantage, reflected in their impressive home defense, conceding an average of only 0.3 goals per home game. Internacional scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded 1.14 goals per away game.