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Vitória – Internacional2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vitória
1.07
Total xG
2.12
Internacional
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.87 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Ramon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Johan Carbonero not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Home defensive strength: Vitória concedes an average of only 0.3 goals per home game
- Internacional's offensive form: Internacional recently showed strong attacking performance with an average of 6.4 shots on target and 2.2 goals
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with 34% for a home win, 33% for a draw, and 33% for an away win
Risks
- Vitória averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The model predicts only a 45% chance of both teams scoring
- The model predicts only a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals
All probabilities
Result
Vitória34%
Draw33%
Internacional33%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Double chance
Vitória or draw67%
Internacional or draw66%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
11%
0:1
11%
2:1
7%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vitória with Luan Cândido: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Internacional with Matheus Bahia: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Internacional: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Vitória: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Vitória: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Vitória 4-3-3 · Internacional 4-4-2
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 45 N. de Souza Mendes
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 44 G. Baralhas dos Santos
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 6 L. Martínez
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
Internacional
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 25 G. Mercado
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 8 B. Corsini
- 5 R. Villagra
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
Substitutes
- 2 C. Coelho Salvático
- 8 R. dos Santos Lopes
- 79 R. de Souza
- 31 R. López Patrón
- 11 O. Lourenço Filho
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 20 L. Rodrigues da Silva
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 55 J. Silva Costa
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 70 C. de Jesus Farias
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 41 V. da Conceição Ribeiro
- 31 A. Rodrigues Pereira da Silva
- 11 K. da Silva Chagas
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 17 B. Souza Ramos
- 10 A. Lourenço
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 22 K. Jesus Santos Oliveira
- 49 João Bezerra
- 33 B. Arhin
- 53 L. de Morais Francisco
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