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Serie A

Remo - Athletico PR

05/24/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Remo
1.0
Total xG
2.0
Athletico PR
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

12%

0:1

11%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
REMAP

Remo

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.66
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 5, 14 places gap)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
G. Pereira Taliari not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Athletico PR

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.38
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 19, 14 places gap)
+0.07
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.02
Lucas Esquivel not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
João Cruz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Luiz Gustavo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Athletico PR with Lucas Esquivel: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Remo with Matheus Alexandre: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

34%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Athletico PR's blatant away defensive weakness, conceding an average of 2.75 goals per game
  • Remo's positive offensive development, currently scoring 1.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.3
  • The mathematical model predicts a very balanced match with a 34% home win and a 34% draw probability
Risk Factors
  • Remo's generally weak defense with an average of 1.69 goals conceded per game throughout the season
  • The low mathematical probability of 33% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score
  • The numerous injury-related absences on both sides could affect squad depth and cohesion
Overview

Remo (19th place, 15 points) host Athletico PR (5th place, 24 points)

Serie A match on May 24, 2026, 8:00 PM

The home team is fighting against relegation, while the visitors are competing for the top spots

The mathematical analysis shows a 34% home win probability and also 34% for a draw

Athletico PR has an away win probability of 32%

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Remo shows a form of LLWDW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

In their last five matches, there were two wins, one draw, and two losses

Remo's last three matches were a 3-2 win against Chapecoense, a 1-1 draw against Palmeiras, and a 2-1 win against Botafogo

The current trend in goal production is positive, with an average of 1.6 goals compared to the season average of 1.3

Athletico PR has a form of LWDLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

In their last five matches, there was one win, two draws, and two losses

Athletico PR's last three matches were a 1-1 draw against Flamengo, a 0-1 loss against Vasco da Gama, and a 0-0 draw against Grêmio

Athletico PR's goal production is currently stagnant at 1.0 goals, compared to the season average of 1.4

Statistics

Remo scored an average of 1.19 goals per game this season and conceded 1.69 goals per game

At home, Remo scored an average of 1.12 goals and conceded 1.12 goals

They kept one clean sheet in a league match

Both teams scored in nine matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in seven matches

Athletico PR scored an average of 1.31 goals per game and conceded 1.06 goals per game

Away, Athletico PR scored an average of 1.25 goals but conceded a high 2.75 goals

They kept four clean sheets in league matches

Both teams scored in eight matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in seven matches

Head-to-Head

No data available for previous head-to-head encounters

Key Players

For Remo, Alef Manga is an important offensive force with 4 goals and 3 assists in 16 appearances

Jajá contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in 13 appearances, with an average rating of 6.73

Vitor Bueno shows a rising form trend with 2 goals and 2 assists in 9 appearances and a rating of 7.08

For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros is the top scorer with 8 goals and 1 assist in 15 appearances

Stiven Mendoza contributed 5 goals in 16 appearances

Gastón Benavídez is an important assist provider with 5 assists in 13 appearances

Goalkeepers

Marcelo Rangel of Remo has kept zero clean sheets in 16 appearances and has an average rating of 7.01

Santos of Athletico PR has kept four clean sheets in 16 appearances with an average rating of 6.81

Influences

Remo concedes an average of 1.12 goals at home, which shows an improved defense compared to the 2.25 goals conceded away

Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.75 goals away, while their home defense is significantly more stable with 0.5 goals conceded per game

No specific stadium or weather data is available

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