Match report →
Remo – Athletico PR1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Remo
1.03
Total xG
2.03
Athletico PR
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Remo | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.66 | |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.38 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 5, 14 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 19, 14 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| G. Pereira Taliari not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Lucas Esquivel not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| João Cruz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Luiz Gustavo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Athletico PR's blatant away defensive weakness, conceding an average of 2.75 goals per game
- Remo's positive offensive development, currently scoring 1.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.3
- The mathematical model predicts a very balanced match with a 34% home win and a 34% draw probability
Risks
- Remo's generally weak defense with an average of 1.69 goals conceded per game throughout the season
- The low mathematical probability of 33% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score
- The numerous injury-related absences on both sides could affect squad depth and cohesion
All probabilities
Result
Remo34%
Draw34%
Athletico PR32%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Double chance
Remo or draw68%
Athletico PR or draw66%
No draw66%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
12%
0:1
11%
2:1
7%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Athletico PR with Lucas Esquivel: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Remo with Matheus Alexandre: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Remo 4-2-3-1 · Athletico PR 3-4-2-1
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 18 D. Tchamba Bangou
- 98 M. da Silva Ferreira
- 28 J. da Silva
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 37 J. Souza Silva
- 11 A. Mangueira Severino Pereira
Athletico PR
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 29 G. Benavídez
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 5 A. Costa
- 26 C. de Jesus Passos
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Substitutes
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 14 L. Picco
- 99 G. Buscariol Poveda
- 33 D. Hernández González
- 17 C. González Tassano
- 7 G. Confreste Pavani
- 10 J. Flores dos Reis
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 11 I. Rodrigues de Lima
- 20 J. Silva Oliveira Junior
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 63 D. Rivas do Nascimento
- 47 F. Chiqueti Bandeira
- 32 V. Teodoro Ferraz
- 36 A. Monteiro
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