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Serie A

Coritiba - Bahia

05/25/2026, 11:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Coritiba
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Bahia
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CORBAH

Coritiba

Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-0.53
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.09
Lucas Ronier on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Tinga not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Bahia

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Luciano Juba not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists)
Erick not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Cristian Olivera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
45% of goal output missing (only 70% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bahia: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 2
    Bahia: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Coritiba with Tinga: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 3.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Bahia with Michel AraĂșjo: 6.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Coritiba: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

30%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The model predicts an away win for Bahia with 37% probability, compared to 33% for Coritiba
  • Critical squad impact for Bahia: Only 70% of the usual starting eleven strength is available, with Luciano Juba (7G/1A), Erick (2G/0A), and Cristian Olivera (1G/1A) missing
  • Contrasting form trends: Coritiba shows a positive trend with increased goal production, while Bahia exhibits a negative trend with stagnant goal production
Risk Factors
  • Coritiba averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited offensive precision
  • Bahia's recently increased goals conceded average of 1.8 per game, compared to their season average of 1.27 goals conceded, suggests current defensive weaknesses
Overview

Coritiba (8th place, 23 points) host Bahia (7th place, 23 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 26, 2026, 12:00 AM. Both teams are close in the table and are striving for a better position.

Form

Coritiba's form is WLLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) from all competitions. In their last five matches, Coritiba recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Coritiba's current goal production averages 1.6 goals per game, which is higher than their season average of 1.3 goals, indicating a positive form trend.

Bahia's form is LDDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) from all competitions. In their last five matches, Bahia achieved 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. Bahia's goal production is stagnant, averaging 1.2 goals per game, below their season average of 1.4 goals, signaling a negative form trend.

Statistics

Coritiba scores an average of 1.31 goals per game and concedes 1.19 goals per game. At home, the average is 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per home game. Coritiba recorded 5 clean sheets, both teams scored in 7 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches this season.

Bahia scores an average of 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1.27 goals per game. Away, the average is 1.5 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded per away game. Bahia recorded 4 clean sheets, both teams scored in 10 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches this season.

Head-to-Head

No data is available for previous head-to-head encounters between Coritiba and Bahia.

Key Players

For Coritiba, attacker Breno Lopes stands out, scoring 7 goals and 1 assist this season, contributing 4 goals in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.54, indicating a rising form trend.

Midfielder Josué recorded 1 goal and 6 assists this season, with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games and a stable average rating of 7.13.

Attacker Pedro Rocha has accumulated 4 goals and 1 assist this season, scoring 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a stable average rating of 6.93.

On Bahia's side, attacker Willian José is notable with 3 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 1 goal in the last 5 games and maintaining a stable average rating of 6.95.

Attacker Mateo Sanabria scored 2 goals and 1 assist this season, with 1 goal in the last 5 games and a stable average rating of 6.81.

Midfielder Everton Ribeiro, with 3 assists this season and 1 assist in the last 5 games, shows a stable average rating of 7.09.

Goalkeepers

Coritiba's goalkeeper Pedro Rangel has made 13 appearances this season and kept 5 clean sheets. His average rating in the last five games is 6.93.

Bahia's goalkeeper LĂ©o Vieira has made 8 appearances this season and kept 4 clean sheets. His average rating in the last five games is 7.02.

Influences

Coritiba scores an average of 1.4 goals per home game and concedes 1.2 goals per home game, statistically supporting a home advantage.

Bahia scores an average of 1.5 goals per away game but also concedes 1.67 goals per away game.

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