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Coritiba – Bahia3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Coritiba
1.21
Total xG
2.53
Bahia
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coritiba | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.53 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Lucas Ronier on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tinga not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Luciano Juba not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Erick not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Cristian Olivera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 45% of goal output missing (only 70% available) |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: The model predicts an away win for Bahia with 37% probability, compared to 33% for Coritiba
- Critical squad impact for Bahia: Only 70% of the usual starting eleven strength is available, with Luciano Juba (7G/1A), Erick (2G/0A), and Cristian Olivera (1G/1A) missing
- Contrasting form trends: Coritiba shows a positive trend with increased goal production, while Bahia exhibits a negative trend with stagnant goal production
Risks
- Coritiba averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited offensive precision
- Bahia's recently increased goals conceded average of 1.8 per game, compared to their season average of 1.27 goals conceded, suggests current defensive weaknesses
All probabilities
Result
Coritiba32%
Draw30%
Bahia37%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Coritiba or draw63%
Bahia or draw68%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bahia: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games
- Bahia: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Coritiba with Tinga: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 3.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Bahia with Michel Araújo: 6.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Coritiba: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Coritiba 4-2-3-1 · Bahia 4-1-4-1
Coritiba
- 22 P. De Faria Rangel
- 44 J. Pedro Chermont Crema
- 23 T. Coiser
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
Bahia
- 22 L. da Silva Vieira
- 31 R. Gómez
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 25 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
- 12 W. da Silva
Substitutes
- 78 R. de Oliveira Junior
- 6 F. Rocha Andrade
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 29 W. de Oliveira Silva
- 88 F. Pereira do Nascimento
- 28 F. da Silva
- 39 G. Silva de Oliveira
- 13 K. da Silva Nunes
- 8 W. Alves Maximo
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 33 D. França
- 86 L. Taverna
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 34 J. Silva Martins
- 27 E. Stum
- 21 S. Ramos Mingo
- 3 G. Lhman Xavier
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 2 G. Moraes Junior
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 63 D. Martins Almeida de Lira
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