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Serie A

Mirassol - Fluminense

05/23/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Mirassol
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Fluminense
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
MIRFLU

Mirassol

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 3, 16 places gap)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Igor Formiga not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
44% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Fluminense

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.20
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 19, 16 places gap)
+0.09
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.03
Jefferson Savarino not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
AgustĂ­n Canobbio not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
HĂ©rcules on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Guilherme Arana on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Guga on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mirassol: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Fluminense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Mirassol with Denilson: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Mirassol: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Fluminense: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

32%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • League Position: Fluminense (3rd place, 30 points) has a significantly better season record than Mirassol (19th place, 13 points)
  • Current Form: Fluminense shows more stable form with 3 wins in their last 5 games compared to Mirassol (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
  • Offensive Strength: Fluminense, with an average of 5.8 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, is significantly more offensively present than Mirassol with 3.4 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Mirassol averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Fluminense conceded an average of 1.83 goals per away game
Overview

Mirassol (19th place, 13 points) host Fluminense (3rd place, 30 points) in Serie A on May 23, 2026, 11:00 PM

Mirassol is fighting against relegation, while Fluminense competes for top positions

Form

Mirassol shows a form of WLWDL across all competitions

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last five matches

Fluminense, on the other hand, has a form of WWLDW

These are 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last five matches

Fluminense thus has the better current form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Mirassol has scored an average of 1.13 goals per game this season and conceded 1.53 goals per match

The team has kept 0 clean sheets so far, and both teams scored in 10 matches

In home games, Mirassol scored an average of 1.11 goals and conceded 1.22 goals

Fluminense is stronger offensively with an average of 1.69 goals per game and conceded 1.31 goals

Fluminense achieved 3 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 12 matches

Away from home, Fluminense scored an average of 1.67 goals and conceded 1.83 goals

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 9 Mirassol games and 10 Fluminense games

Head-to-Head

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, the record is even

Mirassol won 1 game, Fluminense won 1 game, there were no draws

The goal difference is also even at 2:2

The last encounter on November 6, 2025, ended with a 0:1 victory for Mirassol away against Fluminense

The historical record shows no clear dominance

Key Players

Alesson, an attacker for Mirassol, recorded 0 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.08 and rising form

Reinaldo, a defender for Mirassol, achieved 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 4 games with a rating of 7.22 and rising form

Willian Machado, a defender for Mirassol, scored 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.13

John Kennedy, a striker for Fluminense, scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.41 and rising form

Nonato, a midfielder for Fluminense, was involved in 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.24

Juan Pablo Freytes, a defender for Fluminense, showed a rating of 7.04 in the last 4 games

Goalkeepers

Walter, Mirassol's goalkeeper, made 15 appearances this season and kept 0 clean sheets

FĂĄbio, Fluminense's goalkeeper, played in 16 matches and recorded 3 clean sheets

Influences

Mirassol scored an average of 1.11 goals at home and conceded 1.22 goals

Fluminense scored an average of 1.67 goals away and conceded 1.83 goals

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