Match report →
Mirassol – Fluminense1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Mirassol
1.07
Total xG
2.28
Fluminense
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mirassol | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 3, 16 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 19, 16 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Igor Formiga not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Jefferson Savarino not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Agustín Canobbio not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Hércules on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Guilherme Arana on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Guga on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- League Position: Fluminense (3rd place, 30 points) has a significantly better season record than Mirassol (19th place, 13 points)
- Current Form: Fluminense shows more stable form with 3 wins in their last 5 games compared to Mirassol (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
- Offensive Strength: Fluminense, with an average of 5.8 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, is significantly more offensively present than Mirassol with 3.4 shots on target
Risks
- Mirassol averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Fluminense conceded an average of 1.83 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Mirassol30%
Draw32%
Fluminense38%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Double chance
Mirassol or draw62%
Fluminense or draw70%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Mirassol: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Fluminense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Mirassol with Denilson: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Mirassol: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Fluminense: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Mirassol 4-2-3-1 · Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 21 J. Soares de Oliveira Filho
- 8 Denilson
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 2 S. Brito
- 3 J. Ribeiro da Silva
- 22 J. Freytes
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 5 F. Bernal Cruz
- 16 G. Santana
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 32 L. Acosta
- 7 Y. Soteldo Martínez
- 9 J. Kennedy Batista de Souza
Substitutes
- 27 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 9 N. Fogaça
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 17 E. Galdino Moreira
- 97 A. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 29 F. das Chagas Soares dos Santos
- 5 Y. Lima Lara
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 16 I. Aquino da Silva
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 23 A. Santana Rafael
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 46 J. Lima Fidelis
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 28 R. Silva de Almeida
- 29 J. Millán Díaz
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 98 V. de Souza Costa
- 14 G. Cano
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
- 34 W. de Freitas Prado
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