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Grêmio – Santos3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Grêmio
1.24
Total xG
2.44
Santos
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grêmio | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.51 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| Gustavo Martins not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Neymar not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Benjamín Rollheiser not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Álvaro Barreal not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 45% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Similar Form Curves: Both teams show an identical record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses from their last five matches
- Balanced Prediction: Mathematical analysis predicts a very tight outcome with a home win probability of 35% and an away win probability of 34%
- Home Defensive Strength vs. Away Weakness: Grêmio concedes only an average of 0.55 goals per game at home, while Santos allows 2.0 goals per game away
Risks
- Grêmio's low shot efficiency: Grêmio recorded an average of 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Santos' squad impact: Only 68% of Santos' usual goal threat is available, with Neymar (4G/2A), Benjamín Rollheiser (3G/0A), Álvaro Barreal (2G/0A) not in the lineup
- Santos' vulnerable away defense: Santos concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game away from home
All probabilities
Result
Grêmio35%
Draw31%
Santos34%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
Grêmio or draw66%
Santos or draw65%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
10%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Grêmio with Erick Noriega: 0.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Santos with Thaciano: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Grêmio 4-2-3-1 · Santos 4-2-3-1
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 7 C. Pavón
- 43 L. Guedes de Souza
- 44 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 38 C. de Oliveira
- 33 L. Pérez
- 19 E. Noriega
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 9 F. Amuzu
- 95 C. Alves Morais
Santos
- 77 G. Nascimento Resende Brazão
- 18 I. de Souza
- 98 A. Frías
- 4 L. Verissimo da Silva
- 31 G. Escobar
- 15 W. Souza Arão da Silva
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 49 G. Silva Bontempo
- 30 M. Terceros
- 11 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
Substitutes
- 21 Tetê
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 8 Arthur
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 65 R. Freitas dos Santos
- 24 T. Stallbaum
- 39 T. Gonçalves
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 4 W. Kannemann
- 17 D. Moreira Fagundes
- 11 M. Monsalve Gonzáles
- 32 V. Ribeiro de Oliveira
- 8 T. Rincón Hernández
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 19 L. Díaz
- 1 D. da Silva
- 7 R. de Souza Júnior
- 21 M. Vieira da Veiga
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 2 J. Almeida Silva
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 81 S. e Silva
- 42 J. Santos Paes da Costa
- 27 D. Costa Vidinho
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