Match report →
São Paulo – Botafogo1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
São Paulo
1.28
Total xG
2.27
Botafogo
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | São Paulo | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.76 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Damián Bobadilla not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Danilo not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Edenilson on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alex Telles not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Matheus Martins not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Alexander Barboza not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 60% of goal output missing (only 47% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Botafogo's Absences: Only 47% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without Danilo, Edenilson, Alex Telles, Matheus Martins, Alexander Barboza
- São Paulo's Home Strength: The team has a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.56 goals per game
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a higher probability of a home win at 41%
Risks
- Botafogo's Away Weakness: The team concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game
- São Paulo's Form: The home team has suffered 3 losses in their last five matches
All probabilities
Result
São Paulo41%
Draw32%
Botafogo27%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Double chance
São Paulo or draw73%
Botafogo or draw59%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Botafogo: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- São Paulo with Luciano: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Botafogo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Botafogo with Kadir Barría: 5.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- São Paulo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
São Paulo 4-2-3-1 · Botafogo 4-4-2
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 28 A. Franco
- 35 J. Chagas Monteiro
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
- 11 A. dos Santos Ferreira
- 9 J. Calleri
Botafogo
- 22 N. Murara Neto
- 2 V. da Silva
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 34 E. Justino
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 23 S. Rodríguez Molina
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
Substitutes
- 31 C. Coronel
- 14 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 45 L. Marques Alencar
- 38 H. Nunes Fernandes Santos
- 15 J. Moreira Souza
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 33 L. da Silva Santos
- 46 P. da Silva Ferreira
- 21 C. Alves Soares
- 30 F. Negrucci Berdague
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 37 K. Barria
- 28 N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
- 1 R. Steffens
- 3 Y. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 27 Caio Gomes
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 30 C. Correa
- 55 W. Nunes da Silva Dias
- 9 C. Ramos de la Flor
- 14 J. Barrera Herrera
- 42 C. da Silva Santos
- 45 C. Ribeiro do Valle Silva
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