Serie A
São Paulo - Botafogo
05/23/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.3
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
12%0:1
9%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
São Paulo
Botafogo
The Lab
- 1Botafogo: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2São Paulo with Luciano: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Botafogo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 4Botafogo with Kadir Barría: 5.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5São Paulo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
32%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Botafogo's Absences: Only 47% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without Danilo, Edenilson, Alex Telles, Matheus Martins, Alexander Barboza
- São Paulo's Home Strength: The team has a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.56 goals per game
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a higher probability of a home win at 41%
Risk Factors
- Botafogo's Away Weakness: The team concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game
- São Paulo's Form: The home team has suffered 3 losses in their last five matches
Overview
São Paulo (4th place, 24 points) host Botafogo (9th place, 21 points) in a Serie A match. The game will take place on May 23, 2026, 10:00 PM. São Paulo aims to reduce the gap to the top teams, while Botafogo seeks to move into the upper half of the table.
Form
São Paulo's form in the last five matches is LWDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their last result was a loss. Botafogo's form is WDLDW, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, having won their last game.
Statistics
São Paulo averages 1.38 goals scored per game and concedes 1.13 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.44 goals scored and 0.56 goals conceded. The team kept 4 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 9 games, and 7 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. According to advanced stats, São Paulo scores consistently at approximately 1.4 goals per game.
Botafogo is stronger offensively with an average of 1.93 goals per game but concedes 1.87 goals. Away from home, they score 2 goals per game and concede 2.29 goals. They have only kept 1 clean sheet. Both teams scored in 12 games, and 13 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. Botafogo is currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.9 goals).
Head-to-Head
In 4 previous head-to-head matches, São Paulo secured 2 wins, Botafogo 1 win, and there was 1 draw. São Paulo scored 5 goals and Botafogo scored 4 goals. The last encounter saw São Paulo win 1-0 on September 14, 2025. São Paulo has been the more dominant side in recent meetings.
Key Players
For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri with 6 goals and 1 assist, Luciano with 5 goals and 1 assist, and Ferreirinha with 4 goals are key offensive players. Damián Bobadilla (0G/2A) is not nominated.
Botafogo's key players include Arthur Cabral with 7 goals and 1 assist, Lucas Villalba with 1 goal and 1 assist, and Álvaro Montoro with 3 assists.
Goalkeepers
Rafael is in goal for São Paulo and has recorded 4 clean sheets this season. Neto is the goalkeeper for Botafogo and has achieved 1 clean sheet so far.
Influences
São Paulo demonstrates defensive stability at home, conceding only an average of 0.56 goals per game. Botafogo, on the other hand, shows vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 2.29 goals per away game.