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Corinthians – Atlético Mineiro1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Corinthians
1.09
Total xG
2.02
Atlético Mineiro
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Corinthians | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −0.73 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Alan Minda on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very close game, with a home win probability of 37%, a draw of 34%, and an away win probability of 29%
- Corinthians currently show a positive offensive form trend, averaging 1.5 goals in recent matches compared to a season average of 1.1 goals
- Atlético Mineiro averaged 6.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating offensive strength
Risks
- Corinthians averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, suggesting lower offensive penetration
- Atlético Mineiro conceded an average of 1.67 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerability
- According to the model, the probability of both teams scoring is only 42%
All probabilities
Result
Corinthians37%
Draw34%
Atlético Mineiro29%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Double chance
Corinthians or draw71%
Atlético Mineiro or draw63%
No draw66%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
11%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Atlético Mineiro with Reinier: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Corinthians: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Corinthians 4-2-3-1 · Atlético Mineiro 4-1-4-1
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 13 G. Vernes
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 14 R. Almeida Melo
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 8 R. Garro
- 77 J. Lingard
- 9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
Atlético Mineiro
- 22 E. Marques Pires
- 2 Natanael
- 4 R. Tressoldi Netto
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 16 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 8 M. de Andrade Barberan
- 28 T. Cuello
- 30 V. Gomes Silva
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
- 9 Z. Cassierra Cabezas
Substitutes
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 10 M. Depay
- 19 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 26 F. Angileri
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 52 Z. Labyad
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
- 25 T. Pérez
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 27 A. Minda García
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 29 C. Soares
- 36 K. Resende
- 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 39 M. Cissé
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 19 R. Carvalho
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