Serie A
Corinthians - Atlético Mineiro
05/24/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.0
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
15%1:0
13%0:1
11%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Corinthians
Atlético Mineiro
The Lab
- 1Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 2Atlético Mineiro with Reinier: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Corinthians: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
34%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very close game, with a home win probability of 37%, a draw of 34%, and an away win probability of 29%
- Corinthians currently show a positive offensive form trend, averaging 1.5 goals in recent matches compared to a season average of 1.1 goals
- Atlético Mineiro averaged 6.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating offensive strength
Risk Factors
- Corinthians averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, suggesting lower offensive penetration
- Atlético Mineiro conceded an average of 1.67 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerability
- According to the model, the probability of both teams scoring is only 42%
Overview
Corinthians (16th place, 18 points) host Atlético Mineiro (11th place, 21 points) in a Serie A match on May 24, 2026, 10:30 PM
Corinthians are on the brink of the relegation zone, while Atlético Mineiro are in mid-table
The hosts aim to move away from the relegation spots
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Corinthians' form in their last 5 games is DWLWL
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Their last result was a 1:3 loss against Botafogo
Atlético Mineiro shows a form of LLWDW in their last 5 matches
The visitors recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
In their last game, they won 3:1 against Mirassol
Both teams have shown similar performance in their recent matches
Statistics
Corinthians scored an average of 0.88 goals per game and conceded 1.13 goals per game this season
At home, they scored 0.89 goals and also conceded 0.89 goals per game
Overall, Corinthians achieved 6 clean sheets this season, with 3 of them at home
Atlético Mineiro scored an average of 1.31 goals per game and conceded 1.38 goals per game
Away from home, they scored 1.33 goals and conceded 1.67 goals per away game
The visitors managed 3 clean sheets this season, with 1 of them away
Both teams scored in 8 Corinthians games, and in 7 Atlético Mineiro games
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 Corinthians games and in 8 Atlético Mineiro games
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, the record between Corinthians and Atlético Mineiro is even
Each team has secured 1 win, while 2 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference stands at 2:2 goals
The last encounter was won by Corinthians on October 18, 2025, with a 1:0 score
Recent results indicate an even dominance
Key Players
For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro stands out (7.25 average rating, 2 goals, 6 assists), his form trend is rising
Gabriel Paulista (6.99 average rating, 1 goal) shows a stable performance in defense
Gustavo Henrique (6.93 average rating) is another stable defender for the home team
For Atlético Mineiro, Victor Hugo (7.08 average rating, 3 goals, 1 assist) is an important midfielder with stable form
Renan Lodi (7.00 average rating, 2 assists) shows a rising form trend
Tomás Cuello (6.98 average rating, 2 goals, 1 assist) is an attacker with stable performance
Goalkeepers
Corinthians goalkeeper Hugo Souza played 14 season games with an average rating of 6.77
The team achieved 6 clean sheets this season
Atlético Mineiro goalkeeper Everson played 16 season games and achieved an average rating of 6.86
The visitors managed 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
Corinthians scored an average of 0.89 goals per home game and conceded 0.89 goals
Atlético Mineiro scored an average of 1.33 goals per away game and conceded 1.67 goals