Match report →
Palmeiras – Chapecoense1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Palmeiras
1.72
Total xG
2.32
Chapecoense
0.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Palmeiras | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +1.01 | |
| Attack weakness (0.43x league average) | −0.85 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.76 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 20, 19 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 1, 19 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Andreas Pereira not in squad (1 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| José Manuel López not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jhon Arias not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gustavo Gómez not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ramón Sosa not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 59% of goal output missing (only 35% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis projects a home win probability of 63% for Palmeiras
- Critical Absences for Palmeiras: Only 35% of usual starting XI strength available - not lined up: Andreas Pereira (1G/10A), José Manuel López (6G/3A), Jhon Arias (3G/0A), Gustavo Gómez (3G/0A), Ramón Sosa (2G/1A)
- Form and League Position: Palmeiras is top of the league and unbeaten in their last 5 games, while Chapecoense is in crisis at the bottom
Risks
- Chapecoense concedes an average of 3.00 goals per away game
- Palmeiras' goal production has stagnated with an average of 1.4 goals recently, compared to a season average of 1.8
All probabilities
Result
Palmeiras63%
Draw26%
Chapecoense11%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw89%
Chapecoense or draw37%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes39%
No61%
Most likely scores
1:0
16%
2:0
14%
1:1
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Palmeiras with Ramón Sosa: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 3.2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Chapecoense with Bruno Leonardo : 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Chapecoense: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Chapecoense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Palmeiras 4-3-3 · Chapecoense 4-4-1-1
Palmeiras
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 40 A. Andrade Elias
- 31 L. Sousa Santos
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 26 E. Souza da Cruz
- 33 B. dos Santos Covas
- 4 J. Silveira dos Santos
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 97 Ênio
- 99 R. dos Santos Cavalheira Natividade
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
Substitutes
- 6 J. da Silva Dias
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 37 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 10 P. Sampaio Filho
- 24 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 43 L. Roncholeta Benedetti
- 55 R. Barbosa Coutinho
- 72 K. Lima da Cunha
- 41 Eduardo Conceição Silva
- 44 K. Mohamed
- 2 M. da Silva Santos
- 22 H. Meritão
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 20 J. Vicente
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 70 R. Hartmann Ricoldi
- 1 R. de Carvalho Santos
- 18 A. Cordeiro Pessôa Neto
- 77 I. de Vargas da Rosa
- 17 V. Balieiro Lourenco de Carvalho
- 35 Vinicius Eduardo
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
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