🇧🇷

Serie A

Palmeiras - Chapecoense

05/31/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Palmeiras
1.7
Total xG
2.3
Chapecoense
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

16%

2:0

14%

1:1

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
PALCHA

Palmeiras

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.76
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
+0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.12
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 20, 19 places gap)
+0.12
Andreas Pereira not in squad (1 goals, 10 assists)
José Manuel López not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Jhon Arias not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Gustavo Gómez  not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Ramón Sosa not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
59% of goal output missing (only 35% available)

Chapecoense

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+1.01
Attack weakness (0.43x league average)
-0.85
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.45
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 1, 19 places gap)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Palmeiras with Ramón Sosa: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 3.2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Chapecoense with Bruno Leonardo : 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Chapecoense: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Chapecoense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

26%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis projects a home win probability of 63% for Palmeiras
  • Critical Absences for Palmeiras: Only 35% of usual starting XI strength available - not lined up: Andreas Pereira (1G/10A), José Manuel López (6G/3A), Jhon Arias (3G/0A), Gustavo Gómez (3G/0A), Ramón Sosa (2G/1A)
  • Form and League Position: Palmeiras is top of the league and unbeaten in their last 5 games, while Chapecoense is in crisis at the bottom
Risk Factors
  • Chapecoense concedes an average of 3.00 goals per away game
  • Palmeiras' goal production has stagnated with an average of 1.4 goals recently, compared to a season average of 1.8
Overview

Palmeiras (1st place, 38 points) host Chapecoense (20th place, 9 points) at the Allianz Parque

Serie A match on May 31, 2026, 8:00 PM

Palmeiras aims to extend their league lead, while Chapecoense urgently needs points in the relegation battle

The mathematical analysis considers Palmeiras as favorites with a home win probability of 63%

Form

Palmeiras' form in the last five matches is WDDDW

This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 draws

Palmeiras' last match ended in a win

Chapecoense shows a form of LLDLL

This means 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last five games

Chapecoense has suffered two consecutive losses recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Palmeiras scores an average of 1.67 goals and concedes 0.67 goals in home games

This season, Palmeiras has kept a total of 6 clean sheets

Chapecoense scores an average of 1.00 goal and concedes 3.00 goals in away games

Chapecoense has achieved 1 clean sheet this season

The venue statistics show an average of 2.2 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%

Head-to-Head

There are no historical head-to-head matches between Palmeiras and Chapecoense in the available data

Key Players

For Palmeiras, Allan is an important offensive player with 4 season goals and 2 assists, showing rising form

Marlon Freitas contributes to midfield with 2 season goals and 1 assist, displaying stable form

Felipe Anderson scored 1 goal in 3 of 5 games, showing stable form

For Chapecoense, Bruno Pacheco showed rising form with 3 assists in 4 of the last 5 games

Yannick Bolasie contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games, with stable form

Carvalheira scored 1 goal in 4 of 5 games and shows stable form

Goalkeepers

Palmeiras' goalkeeper is Marcelo Lomba, who has no appearances this season

Palmeiras' team recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Chapecoense's goalkeeper is Anderson with 5 season appearances

Chapecoense's team achieved 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

Palmeiras benefits from a home advantage with 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded in home matches

Chapecoense shows a clear away weakness with an average of 3.00 goals conceded per away game

The Allianz Parque venue averages 2.2 total goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.