Match report →
Vasco da Gama – Atlético Mineiro0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Vasco da Gama
1.73
Total xG
3.13
Atlético Mineiro
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vasco da Gama | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.30 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | −0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Andrés Gómez not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Brenner not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Maycon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Alan Minda not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical model indicates a 44% home win probability for Vasco da Gama
- Tactical Clash: Vasco da Gama displays a ball-dominant approach (56% possession, 5.6 shots on target), contrasting with Atlético Mineiro's counter-oriented style (43% possession, 5.0 shots on target)
- Recent H2H Dominance: Atlético Mineiro has historically performed well against Vasco da Gama, highlighted by their 5-0 victory in the last encounter
Risks
- Vasco da Gama's Declining Offensive Form: Recent goal production has dropped to an average of 0.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
- Atlético Mineiro's Away Defensive Vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 1.83 goals per away game this season
- Key Absences: Vasco da Gama is missing A. Gomez (Yellow card suspension), while Atlético Mineiro has to replace R. Tressoldi Netto (Yellow card suspension) and several injured players like M. de Andrade Barberan and A. Franco Palma
All probabilities
Result
Vasco da Gama44%
Draw26%
Atlético Mineiro30%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Vasco da Gama or draw70%
Atlético Mineiro or draw56%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vasco da Gama: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Vasco da Gama with José Luis Rodríguez: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Atlético Mineiro with Victor Hugo: 0.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Vasco da Gama: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Vasco da Gama 4-1-4-1 · Atlético Mineiro 3-4-2-1
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 46 C. Cuesta Figueroa
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 66 L. Soares da Silva
- 88 C. Barros da Luz
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 10 J. Rojas Echavarría
- 17 N. Rocha Moreira
- 77 C. Spinelli
Atlético Mineiro
- 22 E. Marques Pires
- 3 I. Román
- 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 2 Natanael
- 25 T. Pérez
- 30 V. Gomes Silva
- 16 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 28 T. Cuello
- 11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
- 19 R. Carvalho
Substitutes
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 25 H. Moura Arruda da Silva
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 64 W. Fernandes Alves Falcão
- 82 R. Avellar da Silva Fortes
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
- 60 J. Silva
- 72 B. Lopes Ferreira
- 86 L. Zuccarello
- 29 C. Soares
- 36 K. Resende
- 48 M. José Iseppe
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 39 M. Cissé
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 17 I. Silveira Gomes
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
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