Serie A
Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro
05/31/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.1
1.4
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Vasco da Gama
Atlético Mineiro
The Lab
- 1Vasco da Gama: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- 2Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- 3Vasco da Gama with José Luis Rodríguez: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Atlético Mineiro with Victor Hugo: 0.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 5Vasco da Gama: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
26%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical model indicates a 44% home win probability for Vasco da Gama
- Tactical Clash: Vasco da Gama displays a ball-dominant approach (56% possession, 5.6 shots on target), contrasting with Atlético Mineiro's counter-oriented style (43% possession, 5.0 shots on target)
- Recent H2H Dominance: Atlético Mineiro has historically performed well against Vasco da Gama, highlighted by their 5-0 victory in the last encounter
Risk Factors
- Vasco da Gama's Declining Offensive Form: Recent goal production has dropped to an average of 0.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
- Atlético Mineiro's Away Defensive Vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 1.83 goals per away game this season
- Key Absences: Vasco da Gama is missing A. Gomez (Yellow card suspension), while Atlético Mineiro has to replace R. Tressoldi Netto (Yellow card suspension) and several injured players like M. de Andrade Barberan and A. Franco Palma
Overview
Vasco da Gama (17th place, 20 points) host Atlético Mineiro (13th place, 21 points) at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama. The Serie A match takes place on May 31, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table, battling for crucial points to move away from the relegation zone.
Form
Vasco da Gama's current form is L-D-W-L-L (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) in their last 5 matches. Their last two games ended in a defeat. Atlético Mineiro shows a form of L-W-D-W-L (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Atlético Mineiro lost their last match after securing a win. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Vasco da Gama averages 1.29 goals scored per game and concedes 1.65 goals. At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded. The team recorded 1 clean sheet. Atlético Mineiro averages 1.24 goals per game and concedes 1.35 goals. They achieved 3 clean sheets. Away from home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded. At Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Vasco da Gama recorded 1 win, while Atlético Mineiro won 2 games. One match ended in a draw. Atlético Mineiro scored 8 goals compared to 3 by Vasco da Gama. The last encounter on December 7, 2025, saw Atlético Mineiro win 5-0 away, showing their recent dominance. The historical trend indicates a superiority of the away team.
Key Players
For Vasco da Gama, Thiago Mendes stands out with 3 goals, 1 assist, and a seasonal average rating of 7.25. José Luis Rodríguez contributed 2 goals and 4 assists with a seasonal rating of 7.19. Cuiabano, with 2 goals, 3 assists, and a rating of 7.23, is also important but shows a declining form trend. For Atlético Mineiro, Mateo Cassierra impresses with 2 goals and 1 assist, with his form trend recently rising. Renan Lodi with 2 assists and Victor Hugo with 3 goals and 1 assist are other key players, with ratings of 7.01 and 7.07 respectively.
Goalkeepers
In goal for Vasco da Gama is Léo Jardim, who has 1 clean sheet in 17 seasonal appearances and a seasonal average rating of 6.69. His form trend is stable. For Atlético Mineiro, Everson is the goalkeeper, having kept 3 clean sheets in 17 seasonal appearances with a seasonal average rating of 6.85. However, his form trend is declining.
Influences
The match will be played on grass at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama. Vasco da Gama shows an average home performance with 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per home game. Venue statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game. In 3 of the last 5 matches, both teams scored, and 4 of the last 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.