Match report →
Cruzeiro – Fluminense1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Cruzeiro
1.18
Total xG
2.15
Fluminense
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruzeiro | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Kaio Jorge on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Kauã Moraes on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Luciano Acosta on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Agustín Canobbio not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nonato not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical Analysis: Pipeline predictions give Cruzeiro the highest win probability at 39%
- Cruzeiro's Home Strength: The team has secured 3 wins and 1 loss in their last five home games and has historically dominated home encounters
- Form Discrepancy: Cruzeiro shows a rising form of WLWDW, while Fluminense has a mixed record of WLDWL
Risks
- Fluminense Goal Threat: Only 84% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, with Luciano Acosta (3G/4A), Agustín Canobbio (4G/1A), and Nonato (1G/1A) not in the lineup
- Fluminense Away Defense: The team concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Fluminense Goal Production: Recent goal production has faltered (1.2 goals/game), contrasting with a season average of 1.6 goals/game
All probabilities
Result
Cruzeiro39%
Draw33%
Fluminense28%
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw72%
Fluminense or draw61%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruzeiro with Wanderson: 5.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Fluminense with Rodrigo Castillo: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Fluminense: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Cruzeiro: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 · Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 6 K. da Silva
- 11 G. Santos da Silva
- 29 L. Romero
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 88 C. Alves Cardoso
- 22 N. Villareal
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 3 J. Ribeiro da Silva
- 29 J. Millán Díaz
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 5 F. Bernal Cruz
- 8 M. Martinelli
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 7 Y. Soteldo Martínez
- 9 J. Kennedy Batista de Souza
Substitutes
- 25 L. Villalba
- 91 F. da Costa Aragão
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 70 K. Takamura Correa
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 8 M. de Souza
- 31 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 94 W. Maciel Sousa Campos
- 7 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 17 L. Sinisterra Lucumí
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 2 S. Brito
- 32 L. Acosta
- 28 R. Silva de Almeida
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 98 V. de Souza Costa
- 40 D. Duarte Schuindt
- 14 G. Cano
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
- 34 W. de Freitas Prado
- 39 K. Moreira dos Santos
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