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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Fluminense

05/31/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Cruzeiro
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Fluminense
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
CRUFLU

Cruzeiro

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Kaio Jorge  on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Kauã Moraes on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Fluminense

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.03
Luciano Acosta on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Agustín Canobbio not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Nonato  not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruzeiro with Wanderson: 5.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Fluminense with Rodrigo Castillo: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Fluminense: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Cruzeiro: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

33%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical Analysis: Pipeline predictions give Cruzeiro the highest win probability at 39%
  • Cruzeiro's Home Strength: The team has secured 3 wins and 1 loss in their last five home games and has historically dominated home encounters
  • Form Discrepancy: Cruzeiro shows a rising form of WLWDW, while Fluminense has a mixed record of WLDWL
Risk Factors
  • Fluminense Goal Threat: Only 84% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, with Luciano Acosta (3G/4A), Agustín Canobbio (4G/1A), and Nonato (1G/1A) not in the lineup
  • Fluminense Away Defense: The team concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Fluminense Goal Production: Recent goal production has faltered (1.2 goals/game), contrasting with a season average of 1.6 goals/game
Overview

Cruzeiro (11th place, 23 points) host Fluminense (4th place, 30 points) at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Serie A match on June 1, 2026, 1:30 AM

Fluminense aims to maintain its top-4 spot, while Cruzeiro seeks to climb the mid-table

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 39%, a draw of 33%, and an away win of 28%

1.18 goals are expected for Cruzeiro and 0.97 goals for Fluminense

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Cruzeiro shows a form of WLWDW in their last five matches across all competitions

This includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Fluminense has a form of WLDWL in their last five matches across all competitions

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Cruzeiro won their last game, while Fluminense lost their last game

Cruzeiro's current streak is one win

Statistics

Cruzeiro averages 1.36 goals scored per home game

Cruzeiro averages 1.0 goals conceded per home game

Fluminense averages 1.67 goals scored per away game

Fluminense averages 2.0 goals conceded per away game

Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto sees an average of 3.0 total goals per game

Both teams scored (BTTS) in 60% of matches at the stadium

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of matches at the stadium

Cruzeiro kept 4 clean sheets this season, with 3 of them at home

Fluminense kept 3 clean sheets this season, with 1 of them away

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in history between the teams

Cruzeiro won 2 of these encounters, Fluminense won 1, and 1 match ended in a draw

Cruzeiro scored 4 goals, Fluminense scored 1 goal

The last encounter on November 9, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

Cruzeiro has been more dominant in recent direct duels

Key Players

For Cruzeiro, Keny Arroyo shows a rising form trend of +0.25, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Christian recorded 0 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games, with a declining form trend of -0.32

Matheus Pereira contributed 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, his form trend is stable

For Fluminense, John Kennedy scored 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing a rising form trend of +0.24

Jefferson Savarino scored 2 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games, with a rising form trend of +0.22

Guilherme Arana provided 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, his form trend is stable

Goalkeepers

Cruzeiro's goalkeeper Otávio Costa registered 4 clean sheets this season

Fluminense's goalkeeper Fábio achieved 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Cruzeiro averages 1.36 goals scored at home and concedes 1.0 goals per game

Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto has a history of averaging 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 80%

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