Match report →
Santos – Vitória3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Santos
1.46
Total xG
2.28
Vitória
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santos | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.58 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 11, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 17, 6 places gap) | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Benjamín Rollheiser on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ramon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis favors Santos with a home win probability of 51%
- Vitória conceded an average of 3.80 goals per away game, highlighting defensive weaknesses
- Santos averaged 3.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Vitória's 3.6
Risks
- Santos suffered defeats in their last two matches
- Santos has a long list of injured players, including Neymar (Calf Injury)
- Vitória has an extensive list of injured or suspended players
All probabilities
Result
Santos51%
Draw30%
Vitória19%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Double chance
Santos or draw81%
Vitória or draw49%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Vitória with Ronald: 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Santos with Lautaro Díaz: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Santos: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Vitória: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Santos 4-2-3-1 · Vitória 4-3-3
Santos
- 77 G. Nascimento Resende Brazão
- 18 I. de Souza
- 4 L. Verissimo da Silva
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 31 G. Escobar
- 15 W. Souza Arão da Silva
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 49 G. Silva Bontempo
- 30 M. Terceros
- 22 Á. Barreal
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
Vitória
- 2 C. Coelho Salvático
- 77 H. dos Santos Neris
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 44 G. Baralhas dos Santos
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
Substitutes
- 8 T. Rincón Hernández
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 11 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 19 L. Díaz
- 1 D. da Silva
- 7 R. de Souza Júnior
- 21 M. Vieira da Veiga
- 98 A. Frías
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 81 S. e Silva
- 27 D. Costa Vidinho
- 20 P. Fermino
- 8 R. dos Santos Lopes
- 79 R. de Souza
- 11 O. Lourenço Filho
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 6 L. Martínez
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 13 R. Ramos Lima
- 20 L. Rodrigues da Silva
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 22 G. Vasconelos Ferreira
- 35 Fintelman
- 55 J. Silva Costa
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
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