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Serie A

Santos - Vitória

05/30/2026, 11:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Santos
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Vitória
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SANVIT

Santos

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.19
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 11, 6 places gap)
-0.09
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Benjamín Rollheiser on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.58
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.36
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.14
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 17, 6 places gap)
+0.02
Ramon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Vitória with Ronald: 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Santos with Lautaro Díaz: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Santos: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Vitória: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

30%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis favors Santos with a home win probability of 51%
  • Vitória conceded an average of 3.80 goals per away game, highlighting defensive weaknesses
  • Santos averaged 3.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Vitória's 3.6
Risk Factors
  • Santos suffered defeats in their last two matches
  • Santos has a long list of injured players, including Neymar (Calf Injury)
  • Vitória has an extensive list of injured or suspended players
Overview

Santos (17th place, 18 points) hosts Vitória (11th place, 22 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 31, 2026, 12:00 AM at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Santos is battling relegation, while Vitória is in the mid-table

Form

Santos shows a form of DDWLL in their last 5 league games (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

They recently suffered two consecutive defeats

Vitória has a form of LWDLW in their last 5 league games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Vitória won their last match

Statistics

Santos scored an average of 1.35 goals per game this season and conceded 1.65 goals

At home, Santos averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 goals conceded per home game

Vitória averages 1.25 goals per game for the season and concedes 1.38 goals

Away from home, Vitória concedes an average of 3.80 goals per away game while scoring 1.20 goals

At Estádio Urbano Caldeira, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and 2 of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches, each team secured 1 win and there were no draws

Santos scored 1 goal and Vitória scored 1 goal overall

The last encounter on October 21, 2025, ended with a 0-1 away win for Vitória

Historically, both teams are evenly matched

Key Players

Santos' key players include Gabriel Barbosa with 6 goals and 2 assists, holding a season rating of 7.22

Benjamín Rollheiser (3 goals, 0 assists) was not nominated

Gabriel Bontempo contributed 2 assists and shows rising form with a delta of 0.28

Álvaro Barreal scored 2 season goals, but his form is declining (-0.22)

For Vitória, Renê is in strong rising form (+0.35) with 4 goals and 1 assist

Ramon (2 goals, 0 assists) was not nominated

Erick has contributed 2 goals and 4 assists and shows stable form

Baralhas  scored 2 goals and 3 assists, but his form is declining (-0.21)

Goalkeepers

Santos' goalkeeper Gabriel Brazão has achieved 4 clean sheets in 15 season appearances, with 3 of them at home

Vitória's goalkeeper Gabriel has achieved a total of 6 clean sheets in 3 season appearances, all of which were in home games and none away

Influences

Santos has a home advantage with 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 goals conceded per home game

Santos' home record includes 3 clean sheets

The Estádio Urbano Caldeira has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

The stadium surface is grass

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