Serie A
Flamengo - Coritiba
05/30/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.5
0.9
1:1
13%1:0
12%2:0
11%0:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Flamengo
Coritiba
The Lab
- 1Coritiba: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Flamengo with Luiz AraĂșjo: 9.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Coritiba: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Coritiba with Sebastiån Gómez : 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Coritiba: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
28%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The model favors Flamengo with a 53% win probability and 1.59 predicted home goals
- Flamengo's Home Strength: Flamengo scores an average of 1.86 goals per home game
- High-Scoring Venue: Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho averages 3.4 total goals per game in the last five matches, with 100% over 2.5
Overview
Flamengo (2nd place, 31 points) host Coritiba (6th place, 26 points) at Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho. The Serie A match takes place on May 30, 2026, 4:00 PM. Flamengo aim to close the gap on league leaders Palmeiras, while Coritiba seeks to consolidate its top 6 position.
Form
Flamengo's form in the last five games is WDWDL, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last match ended in a loss.
Coritiba's form in the last five matches is LLDWW, which includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Coritiba has won their last two games consecutively.
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Flamengo averages 1.75 goals scored per game and concedes 1 goal per game over the season. At home, their scoring increases to an average of 1.86 goals per home game, while conceding 1 goal per home game.
Coritiba averages 1.41 goals scored per game and concedes 1.24 goals per game. Away from home, the team averages 1.4 goals per away game and concedes 1.3 goals per away game.
Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho shows an average of 3.4 total goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and all 5 games had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
No head-to-head data for these two teams is available in the provided dataset.
Key Players
For Flamengo, Pedro stands out with 9 season goals and 3 assists, holding an average rating of 7.29. He recently scored 4 goals in 5 games with a rating of 7.48.
Samuel Lino is a key player with 2 goals and 5 assists, showing stable form with a rating of 7.19 in his last 5 games.
LĂ©o Ortiz delivers a stable performance as a defender with a season rating of 7.01.
On Coritiba's side, Breno Lopes is the top scorer with 8 season goals and 1 assist, having scored 5 goals in his last 5 games, showing a strong rising form with a rating of 7.52.
Josué shines as the top assist provider with 1 goal and 7 assists this season, including 3 assists in his last 5 games and a stable rating of 7.19.
JoaquĂn Lavega contributes to the offense with 5 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 2 goals and providing 1 assist in his last 5 games with a stable rating of 6.84.
Not nominated for Flamengo: Gonzalo Plata (2G/2A), Guillermo Varela (0G/3A), Jorge Carrascal (2G/1A), Jorginho (2G/0A).
Goalkeepers
AgustĂn Rossi for Flamengo has played 16 times this season and achieved 6 clean sheets.
Pedro Rangel for Coritiba has been in goal for 14 season games and recorded 5 clean sheets.
Influences
Flamengo displays a strong offense at home, averaging 1.86 home goals and a home defense that concedes an average of 1.0 goals.
Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho is known for high-scoring encounters, with an average of 3.4 goals per game. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and all 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.