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Flamengo – Coritiba3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Flamengo
1.59
Total xG
2.48
Coritiba
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Flamengo | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.43 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Gonzalo Plata not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Guillermo Varela not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jorge Carrascal not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jorginho not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Lucas Ronier on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tinga not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The model favors Flamengo with a 53% win probability and 1.59 predicted home goals
- Flamengo's Home Strength: Flamengo scores an average of 1.86 goals per home game
- High-Scoring Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho averages 3.4 total goals per game in the last five matches, with 100% over 2.5
Risks
All probabilities
Result
Flamengo53%
Draw28%
Coritiba19%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Flamengo or draw81%
Coritiba or draw47%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:0
12%
2:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coritiba: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Flamengo with Luiz Araújo: 9.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Coritiba: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Coritiba with Sebastián Gómez : 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Coritiba: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 52 E. Fernandes Araújo
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 27 B. Pinto
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Coritiba
- 22 P. De Faria Rangel
- 44 J. Pedro Chermont Crema
- 23 T. Coiser
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
Substitutes
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 64 W. de Souza Barreto
- 8 S. Ñíguez
- 61 J. de Souza Cunha
- 11 E. Sousa Soares
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 51 D. dos Santos Sales
- 75 L. dos Santos
- 77 J. Monteiro Góes
- 79 C. Lana de Andrade
- 59 Alan Santos
- 78 R. de Oliveira Junior
- 6 F. Rocha Andrade
- 11 L. Vieira Pires
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 29 W. de Oliveira Silva
- 88 F. Pereira do Nascimento
- 28 F. da Silva
- 39 G. Silva de Oliveira
- 13 K. da Silva Nunes
- 8 W. Alves Maximo
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 86 L. Taverna
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