Match report →
Grêmio – Corinthians1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Grêmio
1.04
Total xG
1.87
Corinthians
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grêmio | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.87 | |
| Attack weakness (0.49x league average) | −0.50 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Francis Amuzu on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Cristian Pavón not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| José Enamorado on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Erick Noriega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 38% for Grêmio, with a high draw probability of 35%
- Corinthians recently dominated head-to-head matches with 2 wins and 2 draws from 4 games and a goal difference of 8:3
- Grêmio is missing key starting players, including Francis Amuzu (1G/3A), Cristian Pavón (0G/2A), José Enamorado (0G/2A), and Erick Noriega (1G/1A), reducing their usual starting eleven strength to 76%
Risks
- Grêmio averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Grêmio's starting goalkeeper, Thiago Beltrame, has not played any games this season
All probabilities
Result
Grêmio38%
Draw35%
Corinthians27%
Goals
Over 1.557%
Under 1.543%
Over 2.529%
Under 2.571%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Double chance
Grêmio or draw73%
Corinthians or draw62%
No draw65%
Both teams score
Yes38%
No62%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
11%
2:0
8%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Grêmio with Erick Noriega: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Corinthians with André Carrillo: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Corinthians: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Grêmio 4-2-3-1 · Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Grêmio
- 24 T. Stallbaum
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 44 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
- 33 L. Pérez
- 8 Arthur
- 21 Tetê
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 37 G. Ferreira de Carvalho
- 95 C. Alves Morais
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 13 G. Vernes
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 14 R. Almeida Melo
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 8 R. Garro
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
Substitutes
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 19 E. Noriega
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 9 F. Amuzu
- 77 Andre Martins
- 10 W. Borges da Silva
- 38 C. de Oliveira
- 39 T. Gonçalves
- 4 W. Kannemann
- 18 J. Maturano dos Santos
- 17 D. Moreira Fagundes
- 31 G. Menegon
- 19 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 26 F. Angileri
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 52 Z. Labyad
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
- 80 A. Menezes Santana
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
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