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Serie A

Grêmio - Corinthians

05/30/2026, 08:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Grêmio
1.0
Total xG
1.9
Corinthians
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

11%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
GRÊCOR

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.87
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Francis Amuzu on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Cristian Pavón not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
José Enamorado on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Erick Noriega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Corinthians

Attack weakness (0.49x league average)
-0.50
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.10
13% of goal output missing (only 86% available)
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Grêmio with Erick Noriega: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Corinthians with André Carrillo: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Corinthians: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

35%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 38% for Grêmio, with a high draw probability of 35%
  • Corinthians recently dominated head-to-head matches with 2 wins and 2 draws from 4 games and a goal difference of 8:3
  • Grêmio is missing key starting players, including Francis Amuzu (1G/3A), Cristian Pavón (0G/2A), José Enamorado (0G/2A), and Erick Noriega (1G/1A), reducing their usual starting eleven strength to 76%
Risk Factors
  • Grêmio averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Grêmio's starting goalkeeper, Thiago Beltrame, has not played any games this season
Overview

Grêmio (14th place, 21 points) host Corinthians (15th place, 21 points) at Arena do Grêmio

Serie A match on May 30, 2026, 9:30 PM

Both teams are level on points in the mid-table

Form

Grêmio's form in the last 5 matches is WDLDW

This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Corinthians' form in the last 5 matches is WLWLW

This means 3 wins and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Grêmio averages 1.12 goals scored per game and concedes 1.18 goals per game this season

In home games, they average 1.08 goals scored and 0.62 goals conceded

Corinthians averages 0.86 goals scored away and concedes 1.43 goals per game

Throughout the season, they have scored 0.88 goals per game and conceded 1.06 goals

Grêmio kept 5 clean sheets, Corinthians 7 clean sheets

Arena do Grêmio sees an average of 1.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the 4 previous head-to-head matches, there have been 2 draws and 2 wins for Corinthians

Grêmio has not won any of these encounters

The goal difference of 3:8 goals also favors Corinthians

Corinthians won the last meeting 2-0 on November 2, 2025

Key Players

For Grêmio, Carlos Vinícius with 9 season goals and Tetê with 2 goals and 1 goal in the last 5 games are important attacking players

Gabriel Mec scored 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro stands out with 2 goals and 6 assists this season, and 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 games

Matheus Bidu contributed 2 season goals and 1 goal in the last 5 games

Breno Bidon has scored 2 season goals, with 1 in the last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Thiago Beltrame is in goal for Grêmio but has not played any games this season

Grêmio recorded 5 clean sheets this season

For Corinthians, Hugo Souza is the goalkeeper, who has an average rating of 6.78 in 15 season appearances

Corinthians has kept 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Grêmio has been solid in their 13 home games so far, scoring 1.08 goals and conceding 0.62 goals per game

Corinthians, on the other hand, scored an average of 0.86 goals and conceded 1.43 goals in 7 away games

The Arena do Grêmio has seen an average of 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Only 1 of 5 matches saw both teams score, and only 1 of 5 matches had more than 2.5 goals

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